英国国家经济和社会研究所-展望净零：代理人的期望和政策选择如何在气候情景中推动经济成果（英）

LOOKING-FORWARD TO NET ZERO: HOW AGENT’S EXPECTATIONS AND POLICY CHOICES DRIVE ECONOMIC OUTCOMES IN CLIMATE SCENARIOS NIESR Discussion Paper No. 567 15 May 2025 Ed Cornforth National Institute of Economic and Social Research Lea de Greef National Institute of Economic and Social Research Patricia Sánchez Juanino National Institute of Economic and Social Research About the National Institute of Economic and Social Research The National Institute of Economic and Social Research is Britain's longest established independent research institute, founded in 1938. The vision of our founders was to carry out research to improve understanding of the economic and social forces that affect people’s lives, and the ways in which policy can bring about change. Over eighty years later, this remains central to NIESR’s ethos. We continue to apply our expertise in both quantitative and qualitative methods and our understanding of economic and social issues to current debates and to influence policy. The Institute is independent of all party-political interests. National Institute of Economic and Social Research 2 Dean Trench St London SW1P 3HE T: +44 (0)20 7222 7665 E: enquiries@niesr.ac.uk www.niesr.ac.uk Registered charity no. 306083 This paper was first published in May 2025 Competing Interest Statement: The views expressed in this paper are based on research and are not attributed to the organizations to which the researchers are affiliated. There are no conflicts of interest. The usual disclaimer applies. © National Institute of Economic and Social Research 2025Looking-Forward to Net Zero: How Agent’s Expectations and Policy Choices Drive Economic Outcomes in Climate Scenarios Ed Cornforth, Lea De Greef and Patricia Sánchez Juanino.1 Abstract This paper explores the sensitivity of the macroeconomic impacts of climate change scenarios to underlying assumptions about the policy environment and agent responses. Using the National Institute Global Econometric Model (NiGEM), we analyse the Net Zero long-term scenario developed by the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) modifying the different assumptions related to agent expectations, monetary policy reactions, and fiscal recycling mechanisms. We assess how these options influence the economic outcomes of the transition to net zero. Keywords: NiGEM, macroeconomic model, expectations, net zero scenario, NGFS, monetary policy, fiscal policy. JEL classification : E70, E17, Q54 1 The authors would like to thank Ian Hurst and Stephen Millard for their valuable comments and support. Contents 1. Introduction ...................................................................................................................................................... 3 2. The Role of Expectations .............................................................................................................................. 5 2.1. Sensitivity to Adaptive Expectations .............................