英文【高盛】台湾科技半导体首日要点2025年台湾TechNet会议

We are hosting our Goldman Sachs Taiwan TechNet during 19-20 May 2025. During day 1, within our Taiwan Semiconductor coverage space, we hosted management teams from Realtek (2379.TW; Buy), MediaTek (2454.TW; Buy on CL), UMC (2303.TW; Neutral), Parade (4966.TWO; Sell), and Aspeed (5274.TWO; Buy). We also attended Aspeed OTC analyst meeting on May 19. We provide our key takeaways from the sessions below. Realtek (2379.TW, Buy) During the meeting, Realtek highlighted that 2Q25 demand is lower vs. the exceptionally strong 1Q25, primarily due to: 1) reduced magnitude of customer pull-ins as the urgency to front-load orders has moderated, 2) uncertainty remains elevated due to persistent global tariff and non-tariff risks despite the recent 90-day tariff pause, and 3) customer expectations and visibility for 2H25 remain unclear, even with most clients maintaining their full-year forecasts for now. Despite this, management still noted that 2Q25 retains some strength, driven by ongoing defensive procurement tied to tariff hedging, and reiterated stable full-year forecasts from customers for now. On the inventory side, management emphasized that inventory is well-controlled at both Realtek and the distributor level, and most of the inventory has already been built into finished products rather than remaining as semiconductors. However, they highlighted that visibility remains unclear at the end markets and emphasized that inventory build-up is not solely a US tariff issue, as only about 20–35% of shipments are US-bound and the rest are subject to broader global trade dynamics. On the product side, automotive Ethernet remains a key growth driver for Realtek, with management highlighting that revenue growth in this segment has outpaced the corporate average for six consecutive years and is now approaching top-five product status. However, China’s contribution remains minimal due to its late adoption (beginning in 2024) and ongoing reciprocal tariff headwinds. While Bruce Lu +886(2)2730-4185 | bruce.lu@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Taipei Branch Evelyn Yu +886(2)2730-4187 | evelyn.yu@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Taipei Branch Lya Peng +886(2)2730-4181 | lya.peng@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Taipei BranchTaiwan Technology: Semiconductors: Day 1 Key takeaways: Taiwan TechNet 202519 May 2025 | 9:44PM CST Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S. management did not specifically comment on market share, they reiterated that Realtek i