世界银行-中国在非洲的进口与工业化：来自埃塞俄比亚的证据（英）

Policy Research Working Paper11118Chinese Imports and Industrialization in AfricaEvidence from EthiopiaMarina Mavungu NgomaDevelopment Economics Development Research GroupMay 2025 Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedProduced by the Research Support TeamAbstractThe Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.Policy Research Working Paper 11118The rise of China in the global economy has been linked with negative impacts on employment across many high- and middle-income countries. However, evidence for African countries is limited. This paper investigates the causal relationship between Chinese imports and manufacturing employment in Ethiopia. Imports may harm domestic firms through a revenue effect (lower market shares) or benefit them, indirectly if competition spurs innovation or directly through access to better quality or cheaper inputs. The anal-ysis shows that a one unit increase in import penetration leads to a 15.2 percent increase in industry employment. The inputs effect is disentangled from the other two effects by decomposing total Chinese imports by their end-use category using input-output tables. The evidence shows that imported intermediate inputs are driving the employ-ment gains. The findings are consistent with the idea that employment gains are a result of productivity gains and increases in capacity utilization. These employment gains appear to benefit large firms and labor-intensive industries disproportionately.This paper is a product of the Development Research Group, Development Economics. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The author may be contacted at mmavungu@worldbank.org. Chinese Imports and Industrialization inAfrica: Evidence from EthiopiaMarina Mavungu Ngoma∗JEL Classification: O14, F14, F16, L60, C13, C23, C26, D57Keywords: Imports, Inputs, Manufacturing, Ethiopia, China, Employment.∗The World Bank, Development Research Group. Email: mmavungu@worldbank.org. I am sincerelygrateful to my Tufts University PhD advisors Margaret McMillan, Jenny Aker, Federico Esposito and Cyn-thia Kinnan, for invaluabl