英文【高盛】美洲资产管理公司估值再次见顶，我们对该群体更具选择性；KKR、TPG、CG最具上行潜力

Alternative Managers stocks have largely erased their post “Liberation Day” losses, rallying 34% from their April trough on average. As a result, valuation levels are back near historical highs (31X NTM P/E or 25X 2026 P/E on average — 30% above historical averages) even as macro uncertainty lingers. While we continue to favor the group in the context of Capital Markets coverage broadly, we are more selective on the absolute stock price performance for the group from here, with KKR, TPG and CG screening as having the most potential absolute upside from current levels. In terms of the fundamentals, we still expect the group’s organic management fee growth accelerating to a 14% 2024-2026E CAGR from 9% in 2024 led by Wealth Mgmt/Retail expansion (an increasing source of mgmt fee growth for the group), Credit, Secondaries and Infra, while elongated fundraising for PE-linked strategies is a likely source of downside risks. Looking into the rest of 2025, we highlight the following key themes and drivers across the space: FPAUM and Mgmt Fee Growth Outlook: Fee-paying AUM increased 3% q/q non average in 1Q25 (excluding M&A) and 11% y/y. On a TTM basis, organic management fee growth was 9% on average - OWL, KKR, and APO ranked at the top in the 13%-19% range, while CG and TPG were at the bottom in the 0%-2% range. In 1Q, Retail and affiliated Insurance partnerships accounted for 24% and 21% of the y/y organic management fee growth, respectively. Excluding Retail and Insurance, we estimate the group’s organic management fees grew +6% y/y in 1Q. We expect management fee growth to accelerate from the 2024 level of 9%, to a 2024-2026E CAGR of 14% on average, with Retail/Wealth playing a significant role here and Credit, Infra, and Secondaries being most interesting on the product side. Fundraising: Fundraising remained strong in 1Q25, with $211bn inflows ($159bn nex. affiliated insurance inflows) across public Alt Managers vs. $207bn ($171bn ex. affiliated insurance inflows) in 4Q24. Insurance affiliated inflows of $51bn accounted for 25% of 1Q25 inflows. Private Credit remains the largest driver of growth with $120bn of inflows and accounted for 57% of gross inflows in the quarter. Going forward, most management teams didn’t change their fundraising Alexander Blostein, CFA +1(212)357-9976 | alexander.blostein@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Michael Vinci +1(212)357-8239 | michael.vinci@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Luke Bianculli +1(212)357-4319 | luke.bianculli@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Anthony Corbin +1(212)357-7512 | anthony.corbin@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Aditya Sharma, CFA +1(212)934-9869 | aditya.x.sharma@gs.com Goldman Sachs India SPL Mohak Batra +1(332)245-7661 | mohak.batra@gs.com Goldman Sachs India SPLAmericas Asset Managers Peaking valuations (yet again) leave us more selective on the group; KKR, TPG, CG offer most upside19 May 2025 | 6:26AM EDT Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a resul