英文【高盛】全球钢铁钢铁市场晴雨表2025年3月：大局观钢铁与铁矿石导航仪

Big picture: The steel & iron ore navigator Key latest datapoints Global Prices: In April, HRC prices in Brazil decline moderated to -1% m/m. nChina, Japan and US prices declined by 3%/2%/2% m/m, while remained sideways in the Black Sea and Europe prices improved by 8% m/m. On a YTD basis, the highest price increases have taken place in the US (+34%) and Europe (+28%). China: In March, crude Steel production rose by 18% m/m, above recent nhistorical averages (vs +14% m/m in 2016-2024), following a 4% m/m decline in February. On a y/y basis, China crude steel production reverted to a 5% y/y growth (compared to -6% y/y and -3% y/y declines in January and February, respectively), although it remains broadly flattish on a YTD basis (-1% y/y). Europe: EU crude steel production rose sequentially (16% m/m vs -2% m/m nFebruary), but remained broadly flattish y/y and slightly declining YTD (-3% y/y). US: US average weekly steel production was broadly flattish in April (+0.6% nm/m), keeping YTD trends unchanged. LatAm: LatAm crude steel production increased 9% m/m in March, and reverted nto a 7% y/y growth in the month (vs -10% y/y and -3% y/y declines in January and February, respectively). On a YTD basis, production decreased by 2% y/y. RoW: India has been the main growth driver among the analyzed regions, with nproduction growth accelerating to 8% y/y (+9% m/m and vs +7% y/y in February), bringing YTD production up by 7% y/y. Japan’s production was flat y/y (up 13% m/m ), with YTD production down 5% y/y. Black Sea’s production declined by 5% y/y (+6% m/m) with YTD production declining by 3% y/y.Marcio Farid +55(11)3371-4580 | marcio.farid@gs.com Goldman Sachs do Brasil CTVM S.A. Matt Greene +44(20)7051-0489 | matt.greene@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Paul Young +61(2)9321-8302 | paul.young1@gs.com Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd Trina Chen +852-2978-2678 | trina.chen@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Yuting Yang +852-2978-7283 | yuting.y.yang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Mike Harris +1(713)654-8481 | mike.harris@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLCGlobal Steel The steel market barometer: March 20256 May 2025 | 7:52PM BRT Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S. Global Steel Indicators Steel Prices Flat Steel Exhibit 1: HRC Prices in major regions $/t Exhibit 2: HRC 1m/YTD price performance, $ terms % 300 500 700 900 1,100 1,300 1,500 1,700 1,900 2,100 2,300May-21Aug-21Nov-21Feb-22May-22Aug-22Nov-22Feb-23May-23Aug-23Nov-23Feb-24May-