IMF-全球通货膨胀激增的能源来源（英）

The Energy Origins of the Global Inflation Surge Jorge Alvarez, Thomas Kroen WP/25/91 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. 2025 MAY * The authors would like to thank Emine Boz, Alberto Musso, Jean-Marc Natal, Galip Kemal Ozhan, Nicholas Sander, SebastianWende, and Sihwan Yang for their collaboration and helpful comments on this work. The authors also thank Kazuhiro Hiraki andDeniz Igan for helpful comments, and Weili Lin and Canran Zhang for excellent research assistance. The views expressed herein are those of the author(s) and should not be attributed to the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. Any errors or omissions are the responsibility of the author(s). © 2025 International Monetary Fund WP/25/91IMF Working Paper Research Department The Energy Origins of the Global Inflation Surge Prepared by Jorge Alvarez and Thomas Kroen* Authorized for distribution by Deniz Igan May 2025 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT: This paper investigates the relationship between energy prices and inflation dynamics in the context of the global inflation surge during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using a comprehensive sector-level dataset covering over 30 countries and a local projections empirical strategy, we extend previous studies that primarily focused on single-country analyses or aggregate inflation measures. Our findings indicate that while the energy shocks of 2021–2022 were remarkable, the degree of inflation passthrough of energy shocks appears to be relatively stable over time. Moreover, we show that energy price shocks significantly influence inflation through stable sectoral channels, with structural characteristics such as energy dependence and price flexibility playing critical roles in the passthrough mechanism. These results underscore the necessity of a sectoral perspective in understanding inflationary pressures and highlight the importance of detailed data on price-setting mechanisms and intersectoral connectivity in understanding the energy-inflation passthrough. RECOMMENDED CITATION: Alvarez,Jorge, and Thomas Kroen (2025). “The Energy Origins of the Global Inflation Surge”. IMF Working Paper No. 25/91 (Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund). JEL Classification Numbers: D57, E31, E37, Q43 Keywords: Inflation Passthrough; Energy Prices; Production Networks; Price Rigidities; Local Projections. Author’s E-Mail Address: jalvarez@imf.org, tkroen@imf.org The Energy Origins of the Global Inflation SurgeJorge A. AlvarezInternati