英文【William Blair】经济周刊美元困境

Please refer to important disclosures on pages 14 and 15. Analyst certification is on page 14.Economics WeeklyThe Dollar Dilemma Equity ResearchMacroeconomicsRichard de Chazal, CFArdechazal@williamblair.com+44 20 7868 44899 May 2025William Blair Richard de Chazal, CFA +44 20 7868 4489 2 The U.S. economy is going through a number of major re-gime changes—from a low and stable inflation regime to a mostly low but also more volatile one; from a financialized and hyperglobalized world to a more regionalized pat-tern of trade where capital is less free flowing; and from a monetary policy dominant model to one dominated by fis-cal policy. Among all of this it would make sense to expect to see one other major area of regime change—the dollar; but despite previous reports to the contrary, the Trump administration is not declaring that it wants a weaker dol-lar. While we expect further softening in the exchange rate, in this Economics Weekly, we discuss why the U.S. is likely still unable to shed its exorbitant privilege and reserve currency status anytime soon, even if there are many reasons to think it might want to. It’s All We’ve Got for NowThe truth is that fears related to the adverse impact of being the world’s reserve currency of choice are noth-ing new. The “exorbitant privilege” has its advantages of bestowing deeper and more liquid capital markets, lower interest rates, and a large demand for debt, as well as providing control of the global financial system. However, these advantages are accompanied by the “exorbitant burden” of a persistently overvalued exchange rate, a like-lihood of taking on too much debt, a deterioration in the export base and more unbalanced trade, and a buildup of global instability. Economist Robert Triffin wrote about this in the 1960s, with the Triffin dilemma. He noted that being the world’s reserve currency and satisfying the global need for deep and liquid capital markets also means running large current account deficits. Furthermore, as that deficit increased, so too would foreigners’ concerns that the system was becoming increasingly unbalanced and vul-nerable to a loss of faith—potentially leading to a major currency crisis. Hence, doing everything to maintain that faith in the “fiat” currency was deemed essential. Former Fed Chair Paul Volcker also had a keen under-standing of the U.S. financial system and was one of the key architects of President Nixon’s 1971 shock de-pegging of the dollar from gold. In 2005, Volcker again became highly concerned about the potential for another currency crisis and penned An Economy on Thin Ice, in which he wrote:What holds it all together is a massive and grow-ing flow of capital from abroad, running to more than $2 billion every working day, and growing. There is no sense of strain. As a nation we don’t consciously borrow or beg. We aren’t even offer-ing attractive interest rates, nor do we have to offer our creditors protection against the risk of a declining dollar...