世界经济论坛-自动驾驶汽车：时间表和未来路线图（英）

Autonomous Vehicles: Timeline and Roadmap AheadW H I T E P A P E RA P R I L 2 0 2 5In collaboration with Boston Consulting GroupImages: Getty ImagesDisclaimer This document is published by the World Economic Forum as a contribution to a project, insight area or interaction. The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed herein are a result of a collaborative process facilitated and endorsed by the World Economic Forum but whose results do not necessarily represent the views of the World Economic Forum, nor the entirety of its Members, Partners or other stakeholders.© 2025 World Economic Forum. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying and recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system.ContentsForeword 3Executive summary 4Introduction 51 Assisted, automated and autonomous personal vehicles 72 Robotaxis and roboshuttles 113 Autonomous trucks 144 An overarching industry agenda 18Conclusion 21Contributors 22Endnotes 24Autonomous Vehicles: Timeline and Roadmap Ahead2ForewordOver thousands of years transport has always connected people and expanded their access to opportunities, consistently growing economies and advancing societies. Within that ongoing evolution, autonomous vehicles (AVs) represent one of transport’s most anticipated developments, offering the potential to improve road safety, enhance logistics and enable new mobility services. There are, however, significant technological, regulatory and operational challenges to realizing those benefits. AVs must also be carefully integrated into existing transport ecosystems as mixed traffic conditions will create complexities for years to come.It is crucial that the sector’s stakeholders can base informed decisions on realistic expectations, yet predictions about the deployment timeline for autonomous vehicles have tended to be overly optimistic. While vehicle automation technology has advanced considerably, its large-scale integration will take longer than most have anticipated. This white paper aims to provide a more grounded perspective on the adoption timeline, addressing three key use cases of vehicle autonomy between 2025 and 2035: personal vehicles, robotaxis and autonomous trucks. It strives to answer some of the key questions of policymakers, business leaders and the public about these evolving technologies.The timeline for adopting these innovations has wide societal implications beyond transport planning, and addressing these challenges at an early stage is essential to a successful rollout. For example, many workers may struggle to adapt to changing job requirements. An accurate timeline can help decision-makers better prepare workforce reskilling programmes. Data privacy and cybersecurity must also be prioritized; autonomous vehicles gather vast amounts of real-time and, to some extent, sensitive data, about what is happening in the vehicle and its surroundings. Equi