KROLL-汽车行业洞察——2025年夏季（英）

Industry InsightsSUMMER 2025Learn moreAutomotive IndustryIndustry HighlightsOverview2Globally, 2024 marked a year of slow growth for the automotive industry, as volumes only grew 1.7% to 88.1 million units. 2025 is expected to be another year of sluggish growth, with only a 1.6% forecasted increase in sales volumes. Sales are expected to be negatively impacted by weaker customer demand, mixed economic conditions and political risk marked by an uncertain tariff environment.1In 2024, U.S. auto sales grew 1.9% year over year (YoY), with strong sales in the last three months of the year.2 For 2025, sales are forecast to drop to 15.4 million units as demand softens and tariff impacts increase the cost of vehicles.3 Electric vehicles (EVs) continue to gain market share in the U.S. but grew only 10% in 2024 compared to 40% in 2023. Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) now account for 10% of new car sales.4Chinese auto sales rose to 31.4 million units in 2024, up 4.6% from 2023.5 Sales were especially strong in the back half of 2024 and the start of 2025 as certain government subsidy programs and sales tax exemptions buoyed consumer demand.6 The EV market in China continues to accelerate. Helped by the recent growth of PHEV sales, nearly half of all new cars sold in China in 2024 were electric.7In Europe, vehicle sales in 2024 increased 0.9% compared to 2023.8 Growth slowed due to lower demand, political uncertainty, and the ending of certain EV subsidies in major European markets.1 Muted sales results continued into 2025, as sales for the first quarter are down 0.4% YoY.9 Although BEVs have lost some market share, an increase in hybrid sales has driven the market share of all EVs over 50% for 2024.8M&A activity in the automotive sector continued its decline through the end of 2024 and into 202510 due to uncertain economic and geopolitical dynamics.11 Seventy-seven transactions closed in the first quarter of 2025, down 46% from the first quarter of 2024, representing the lowest quarterly total in over 10 years.10Public company equity performance in selected automotive indexes was mixed through April 2025, with the Automotive Mobility, Automotive Aftermarket Parts and Repair and Automotive Suppliers indices in positive territory. The Automotive Dealers, Automotive Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs), and EV indices ended the period in the negative.10Executive SummaryTariff Impacts: U.S. Vehicle Prices Estimated to Increase by $2K to $10K3,18Global Light Vehicle Sales Growth Slowed in 2024 and into 20251Global Auto Sales Expected to Grow Modestly in 2025, Hampered by Tariffs1Tariff Impacts: U.S. Vehicle Sales Estimates Lowered by 850K for 20253Automotive M&A Activity Remains Weak in 2025103BrandBestselling VehicleBrand % of 2024 Market Share2023 Rank1. Toyota Corolla10.7%12.Volkswagen Tiguan5.8%23.BYD SONG4.5%94.Honda CR-V4.4%35.Ford F-Series4.3%5Global Auto Sales Trends4Global vehicle sales slowed in 2024 after