未来能源研究所-边缘甲烷分子从哪里来？液化天然气出口对美国天然气供应和甲烷排放的影响（英）

Where Does the Marginal Methane Molecule Come From? Implications of LNG Exports for US Natural Gas Supply and Methane EmissionsBrian C. PrestWorking Paper 25-05 March 2025Resources for the FutureiAbout the AuthorBrian C. Prest is an economist and fellow at Resources for the Future (RFF) specializing in the economics of climate change, energy economics, and oil and gas supply. Prest uses economic theory and econometrics to improve the design of energy and environmental policies. His recent work includes improving the scientific basis of the social cost of carbon and economic modeling of various policies around oil and gas supply.Acknowledgements This study was supported by RFF funds. I am grateful for insightful comments from Alan Krupnick, Daniel Raimi, Kevin Rennert, and Richard Morgenstern.About RFFResources for the Future (RFF) is an independent, nonprofit research institution in Washington, DC. Its mission is to improve environmental, energy, and natural resource decisions through impartial economic research and policy engagement. RFF is committed to being the most widely trusted source of research insights and policy solutions leading to a healthy environment and a thriving economy. Working papers are research materials circulated by their authors for purposes of information and discussion. They have not necessarily undergone formal peer review. The views expressed here are those of the individual authors and may differ from those of other RFF experts, its officers, or its directors.Sharing Our WorkOur work is available for sharing and adaptation under an Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0) license. You can copy and redistribute our material in any medium or format; you must give appropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made, and you may not apply additional restrictions. You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use. You may not use the material for commercial purposes. If you remix, transform, or build upon the material, you may not distribute the modified material. For more information, visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/.Resources for the FutureiiAbstractSurging exports of US liquefied natural gas (LNG) over the past decade have raised concerns about their potential to increase domestic gas prices and spur environmental impacts, both local and global, especially because methane, a potent greenhouse gas, commonly leaks from US oil and gas infrastructure. Yet methane leak rates vary widely—up to an order of magnitude—across sources of US oil and gas supply, creating uncertainty in the carbon footprint of US LNG. This paper models the impacts of increased US oil and gas export demand on domestic oil and gas prices, marginal oil and gas supply by US basin, and the implied methane intensity of that marginal supply. Each 1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) increase in gas export d