下一个巨型竞技场：2040年达到29-48万亿美元的18个行业-麦肯锡

October 2024The next big arenas of competitionArenas are industries that transform the business landscape. Eighteen future arenas could reshape the global economy and generate $29 trillion to $48 trillion in revenues by 2040.AuthorsChris BradleyMichael ChuiKevin RussellKweilin EllingrudMichael BirshanSuhayl ChettihEditorMax BerleyData visualizationChuck BurkeiiThe next big arenas of competitionCopyright © 2024 McKinsey & Company.All rights reserved.Cover image: Large stadium lights © ZargonDesign/Getty ImagesConfidential and proprietary. Any use of this material without specific permission of McKinsey & Company is strictly prohibited.1The next big arenas of competitionMcKinsey Global InstituteThe McKinsey Global Institute was established in 1990. Our mission is to provide a fact base to aid decision making on the economic and business issues most critical to the world’s companies and policy leaders. We benefit from the full range of McKinsey’s regional, sectoral, and functional knowledge, skills, and expertise, but editorial direction and decisions are solely the responsibility of MGI directors and partners.Our research is currently grouped into five major themes: — Productivity and prosperity: Creating and harnessing the world’s assets most productively — Resources of the world: Building, powering, and feeding the world sustainably — Human potential: Maximizing and achieving the potential of human talent — Global connections: Exploring how flows of goods, services, people, capital, and ideas shape economies — Technologies and markets of the future: Discussing the next big arenas of value and competitionWe aim for independent and fact-based research. None of our work is commissioned or funded by any business, government, or other institution; we share our results publicly free of charge; and we are entirely funded by the partners of McKinsey. While we engage multiple distinguished external advisers to contribute to our work, the analyses presented in our publications are MGI’s alone, and any errors are our own.You can find out more about MGI and our research at www.mckinsey.com/mgi.MGI Directors Sven Smit (chair) Chris Bradley Kweilin Ellingrud Sylvain JohanssonNick LeungOlivia White MGI Partners Mekala Krishnan Anu Madgavkar Jan Mischke Jeongmin Seong Tilman Tacke2The next big arenas of competitionContentsAt a glance 4Introduction 6Executive summary 8Chapter one. The arenas of today 17Chapter two. The arena-creation potion 37Chapter three. The arenas of tomorrow 55Arenas of tomorrow compendium 83 1. E-commerce 852. Artificial intelligence software and services 893. Cloud services 934. Electric vehicles 975. Digital advertising 1066. Semiconductors 1147. Shared autonomous vehicles 1198. Space 1259. Cybersecurity 13210. Batteries 13711. Modular construction 14412. Streaming video 14913. Video games 15414. Robotics 16115. Industrial and consumer biotechnology 16716. Future air mobility 17417. Drugs for obesity and relat