世界银行-利用卫星图像和农民登记册评估冲突环境中的农业支持：乌克兰生产者支持补助金计划案例（英）

Policy Research Working Paper10912Using Satellite Imagery and a Farmer Registry to Assess Agricultural Support in Conflict SettingsThe Case of the Producer Support Grant Program in Ukraine Klaus DeiningerDaniel Ayalew AliDevelopment Economics Development Research GroupSeptember 2024 Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedProduced by the Research Support TeamAbstractThe Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.Policy Research Working Paper 10912While cash transfers have emerged as an attractive option to minimize negative long-term impacts of conflict, the scope for targeting and assessing their impact in such settings is often challenging. This paper shows how a digital farmer registry in Ukraine (the State Agrarian Register) helped to target and evaluate such a program, using the coun-try’s $50 million Producer Support Grant in a way that largely avoided mis-targeting. The analysis applies a differ-ence-in-differences design with panel data from 2019–23 on crop cover at the parcel/farm level for the universe of eli-gible farmers registered in the State Agrarian Register. The findings suggest that the program significantly increased area cultivated, although the effect size remained modest. Impacts were most pronounced near the frontline and for the smallest farmers. The paper discusses the implications in terms of a more diversified menu of support options and the scope of using the State Agrarian Register to help to implement these options, as well as lessons beyond Ukraine. This paper is a product of the Development Research Group, Development Economics. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted at kdeininger@worldbank.org and dali1@worldbank.org. Using Satellite Imagery and a Farmer Registry to Assess Agricultural Support in Conflict Settings: The Case of the Producer Support Grant Program in Ukraine Klaus Deininger1 Daniel Ayalew Ali1 JEL Codes: Q10, O13, H56, R14 Keywords: Ukraine, conflict/war, food security, agricultural production, cash grants, remote sensing 1 The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Wa