Barclays_The_Emerging_Markets_Quarterly_A_looser_leash

This document is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of theindependence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retailinvestors under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242. Barclays trades the securities covered in this report for itsown account and on a discretionary basis on behalf of certain clients. Such trading interestsmay be contrary to the recommendations offered in this report.Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 200.The Emerging Markets QuarterlyA looser leashA soft landing in the US and a loosening Fed constraint from ameasured cutting cycle should provide a relatively supportivebackdrop for EM assets. But valuations largely reflect this andrisks to the benign base case appear pronounced. We seefurther room for rates to perform, but are more selective in FXand credit.EM Economic & Strategy OutlookA looser leash. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3A soft landing in the US and a loosening Fed constraint from a measured cutting cycle shouldprovide a relatively supportive backdrop for EM assets. But valuations largely reflect this andrisks to the benign base case appear pronounced. We see further room for rates to perform, butare more selective in FX and credit.EM Heat MapsA comparative overview of EM country metrics. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20FICC ResearchEM Strategy11 September 2024FOCUSEconomicsChristian Keller+44 (0) 20 7773 2031christian.keller@barclays.comBarclays, UKBrahim Razgallah+ 44 (0) 20 3555 4762brahim.razgallah@barclays.comBarclays, UKGabriel Casillas+ 1 212 526 7814gabriel.casillas@barclays.comBCI, USCredit StrategyAndreas Kolbe+44 (0) 20 3134 3134andreas.kolbe@barclays.comBarclays, UKAvanti Save, CFA+65 6308 3116avanti.save@barclays.comBarclays Bank, SingaporeSebastian Vargas+1 212 412 6823sebastian.vargas@barclays.comBCI, USFX & EM Macro StrategyAndrea Kiguel+1 212 526 8954andrea.kiguel@barclays.comBCI, USMitul Kotecha+ 65 6308 5439mitul.kotecha@barclays.comBarclays Bank, SingaporeMarek Raczko+44 (0) 20 3134 0089marek.raczko@barclays.comBarclays, UKCompleted: 11-Sep-24, 01:17 GMT Released: 11-Sep-24, 04:00 GMTRestricted - ExternalEmerging AsiaThe Fed can open the door – but not all need enter. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26Banish the image of Emerging Asian central banks clamouring for monetary policy easing onceUS rates fall – economic activity generally remains well above levels that would ring alarm bellsfor policymakers, keeping some central banks vigilant on inflation, others on financial stability.EM Asia Trade Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41Emerging Europe, Middle East and AfricaNo one size fits all. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84EEMEA defies global headwinds with resilient domestic deman