韩国央行-第一章经济趋势（英）

Economic TrendsⅠ1. Real Economy 32. Financial and Foreign Exchange Markets 173Ⅰ. Economic Trends 1. Real Economy1. Real Economy1)A. Global EconomyIn 2022, the growth of the global econo-my heavily decelerated in accordance with simultaneous sluggishness in the economies of major countries. By country, in the U.S. and the euro area, the economic slowdown was mainly attributed to price inflation and the subsequent interest rate hikes. In Japan and China, COVID-19 quarantine measures were a leading factor behind their economic downturn. The recovery of global trade was also weakened, affected by the global eco-nomic slowdown. Meanwhile, amid growing volatility due to the Russia-Ukraine war, the global economic slowdown, and the OPEC+ decision to cut oil production, international oil prices fluctuated at a generally higher level compared to 2021. Prices grew at a consider-ably faster rate, affected by a surge in global commodity prices. Slowdown in Global Economic GrowthIn 2022, the growth of the global economy stagnated significantly in line with the simul-taneous economic downturn of major coun-tries, which led to the estimation that it would remain in the lower to mid-3 percent range.2) This was largely driven by the prolonged Rus-sia-Ukraine war, China’s lockdown, tightened monetary policy stances of major economies, and energy supply disruptions. 1) A detailed explanation of economic trends during 2022 can be found in “I. Monetary Policy Operating Conditions” of the Monetary Policy Report (Quarterly) published by the Bank of Korea, such as the March 2022 Issue, June 2022 Issue, September 2022 Issue, December 2022 Issue, and March 2023 Issue.2) The growth rate of the global economy in 2022 estimated by major international organizations: 3.4 percent by the IMF, 3.2 percent by the OECD·U.N., and 3.1 percent by the World Bank. (%) (%)Sources: IMF86420-2-4-6-886420-2-4-6-82013201620192022eFigure Ⅰ- 1. Changes in Global Economic Growth(%) (%)Sources: IMF, statistics agencies of individual countries1062-2-6-101062-2-6-10WorldU.S.Euro AreaJapanChinaIndiaASEAN-5Figure Ⅰ- 2. Growth Rate of Global Economy and Major Countries 2020 2021 20224By country, the U.S. saw its economic growth slow due to rising inflationary pres-sures and the subsequent rapid policy rate rises. In the euro area, amid the prolonged Russia-Ukraine war, the economy continued to show a downward trend owing to high inflation. In the case of Japan, the economic recovery was sluggish, affected by prolonged quarantine measures in response to the spread of COVID-19, as well as to the global economic slowdown. Meanwhile, China ex-perienced a sharp decline in economic growth due to its continued zero-COVID policy and extended slump in the real estate market.3) In-dia sustained its favorable upward trend until the third quarter, but later entered a gradual economic slowdown owing to a worsening of domestic and external conditions. In the ASE-AN-5 countries, a favorable economic r