布鲁盖尔研究所-全球供应链：十年混乱的教训（英）

WORKING PAPER | ISSUE 04/2024 | 04 MARCH 2024Recommended citation:Léry Moffat, L. and N. Poitiers (2024) ‘Global supply chains: lessons from a decade of disruption’, Working Paper 04/2024, BruegelLUCA LÉRY MOFFAT AND NICLAS FREDERIC POITIERSThis paper explores both the character and impact of three recent shocks to global supply chains: the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the US-China trade war. These were large shocks which have had significant impacts on domestic and international supply chains, but these impacts have differed in their longevity, economic impact and policy responses. We show that supply chains were remarkably resilient against shocks of such magnitude. However, this resilience was also achieved thanks to the equally remarkable size and scope of policy responses and global supply chain reorganisation. We recommend that pre-emptive policies may be justified to shield households and industry from future shocks. Given the entangled nature of these shocks and that their effects continue to reverberate, we emphasise the need for extensive future research to understand the nature of these shocks and the effectiveness of policy responses. Luca Léry Moffat (luca.moffat@bruegel.org ) is a Research Analyst at BruegelNiclas Poitiers (niclas.poitiers@bruegel.org) is a Research Fellow at BruegelGLOBAL SUPPLY CHAINS: LESSONS FROM A DECADE OF DISRUPTION 1 Contents 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................ 2 2 COVID-19 ................................................................................................................................................ 2 2.1 Timeline of economic effects ............................................................................................................. 3 2.2 Price volatility and shortages ............................................................................................................. 6 2.3 Policy responses and the aftermath ................................................................................................... 7 3 The Russian invasion of Ukraine ............................................................................................................... 8 3.1 Energy shock ................................................................................................................................... 8 3.2 Agriculture ..................................................................................................................................... 12 3.3 In perspective: the shock and the response ...................................................................................... 17 4 The China-US trade war .......................................................................................................................... 18 4.1 The Trump-Biden trade wars ..............................................................