宏观季报：2023年9月，中國经济复苏和再通胀持续

宏观经济 | 2023 年 9 月 29 日 本报告由建银国际证券有限公司撰写。分析师证明及其他重要声明请见报告最后一页。 1 报告摘要  发达国家加息周期接近尾声，但高息预计持续。９月美联储暂停加息，但点阵图传递鹰派信息。新的经济指标预测表明联储预计美国经济未来将实现软着陆，我们仍预计联储年内不再加息，但将维持高息。市场近期推迟联储降息时机，趋向我们的观点，认为联储将在明年下半年才开始小幅降息的预期。联储鹰派加上经济坚挺，和政府债务扩张，推动利率大幅走高。但随着加息见顶，加上四季度的经济下行压力，可能导致美国债利率从目前的高位回调。我们预计 2 年期和 10 年期利率波动区间 4季度分别在 4.8-5.2%和 4.2%-4.8%。  预计国内经济环比继续改善，通胀和利率回升。8 月国内经济数据普遍好转。预计地产销售底部趋稳，料开发商继续削减投资，行业整合趋势持续。全球制造业逐步趋稳，消费特别是服务消费进一步修复，以及政府支出和公共投资的提速将支持增长动能的改善。预计货币政策维持宽松，国内通胀和利率继续回升。  预计美元强势将持续，人民币逐步趋稳。美国在发达国家中更具韧性的增长前景继续支持美元指数在短期持续强势，人民币兑美元汇率仍有压力。国内央行预计保持稳汇率措施。随着国内经济增长改善，贸易周期回暖，预计人民币兑美元汇率未来逐步趋稳回升。 下月市场焦点：国际方面，需要关注欧美国家通胀及就业数据，央行议息会议。国内方面，关注经济活动高频数据和宏观政策。 Main points:  Monetary tightening close to an end in DMs, but elevated interest rates will persist. The Fed paused hikes in Sep, but the dot plot implies a hawkish message. Updated economic forecasts indicate a soft economic landing ahead. We hold the view that the Fed will maintain elevated interest rates unchanged this year. Markets have pared back expectations of rate cuts and now expect the rate cutting cycle to start from 2H 2024, similar to our view. A hawkish Fed, economic resilience, and debt expansion by the US government are likely to push interest rates higher. However, the likely peak in monetary tightening and downward pressure on economic growth are likely to cause rates to pull back from current highs in 4Q. We expect 2-year and 10-year yields to trade in the ranges of 4.8-5.2% and 4.2-4.8%, respectively, in 4Q 2023.  We expect domestic growth to improve sequentially, inflation to accelerate, and rates to rise. The economic data improved broadly in Aug. We expect property sales to stabilize while developers continue to reduce investment. Sector-wide consolidation will continue. A bottoming-out of the global manufacturing cycle, a continued recovery in domestic consumption (especially services consumption), and accelerating government spending and public investment will support improving growth momentum. We also anticipate accommodative monetary policy will stay in place. Domestic inflation and interest rates are likely to pick up.  USD strength is likely to persist, but the improving Chinese economy will help support the RMB exchange rate. The RMB index rebounded but the RMB weakened against the USD last month. US economic outperformance is likely to buttress USD strength in the near term, which may weigh on the RMB vs USD rate. The PBoC will continue to support the RMB in the near-term. As domestic growth and trade performance improves, we expect the USDCNY to strengthen in the months ahead. Market focus next month – internationally, we are keeping an eye on inflation, employment data, and on central banker speeches. Domestically, our focus will be on high-frequency economic data and macro policy. 崔历 (852) 3911 8274 cuili@ccbintl.com 谢炫 (852) 3911 8241 kevinxie@ccbintl.com 严惠婷 (852) 3911 8012 yanhuiting@ccbintl.com 建银国际证券 ｜宏观研究 宏观季报: 2023 年 9 月–中國经济复苏和再通胀持续 3Q Economic Data Wrap – Sep 202