世界海运市场预测

SEPTEMBER 2023 –PUBLICATION DATE AUGUST 31ST, 2023OCEAN FREIGHTMARKET UPDATEDHL Global Forwarding – Excellence. Simply delivered.UNCLASSIFIED (PUBLIC)UNCLASSIFIED (PUBLIC)ContentsOcean Freight Market update – September 2023DHL Global Forwarding | OFR Market Update | September 202321Topic of the month Record deliveries2Market outlook3Economic outlook & demand development4Capacity 5Carriers6Rules & Regulations7Ports8Did you knowShipping DecarbonizationUNCLASSIFIED (PUBLIC)Topic of the monthRecord deliveries3Source: Alphaliner, DynaLiners•MSC alone accounted for 39% of the deliveries, broadening the gap tosecond-ranked Maersk Line. Alphaliner’s orderbook projections howevershow that MSC will further expand its lead over the next weeks and months.MSC’s rapid growth was mainly fueled by newbuilding deliveries and second-hand buying.•Thus, Maersk Line’s market share has dropped to 15%. In addition, the carrierhad the smallest order-book in proportion to its fleet of all top carriers.•From an actual volume shipped perspective however, Maersk still ranksbefore MSC, and right after leader COSCO.•Deliveries will remain high over the next months. While the new CII and EEXIregulations have created some ’artificial’ tonnage demand though mandatedslow-steaming, cargo volumes will most certainly not grow enough to absorball new deliveries. Alphaliner therefore believes that large chunks of today’svessel new-building pipeline will be for fleet renewal, rather than fleetgrowth.DHL Global Forwarding | OFR Market Update | September 2023Vessel deliveries reached almost 300’000 TEU in JuneVessel Deliveries by MonthRankkTEUGrowth2022Carrier20202021202220/2121/221COSCO26’344 26’344 24’412 0.0%-7.3%2Maersk25’268 26’178 23’848 3.6%-8.9%3MSC23’700 23’300 23’000 -1.7%-1.3%4CMA CGM20’980 22’040 21’740 5.1%-1.4%6ONE11’964 12’061 11’081 0.8%-8.1%5Hapag-Lloyd11’839 11’872 11’843 0.3%-0.2%7Evergreen7’050 7’430 7’730 5.4%4.0%9Wan Hai4’500 4’800 4’300 6.7% -10.4%8Yang Ming5’071 4’410 4’610 -13.0%4.5%10PIL3’900 4’100 4’000 5.1%-2.4%11HMM3’894 3’817 3’682 -2.0%-3.5%12ZIM2’841 3’481 3’380 22.5%-2.9%Total Top 12147’351 149’833 143’626 1.7%-4.1%Estimated world total173’100 183’300 176’000 5.9%-4.0%Carriers by Actual Volume ShippedUNCLASSIFIED (PUBLIC)High level market developmentDHL Global Forwarding | OFR Market Update | September 202341) Real GDP, Copyright © IHS Markit, now part of S&P Global, Q2 2023 Update 1 June ‘23. All rights reserved; 2) IHS Markit, now part of S&P Global, Q2 2023 Update 1 June ‘23. All rights reserved; 3 & 4) Surcharges related to e.g., equipment & space availability are not reflected in WCI & SCFI; 3) Drewry, in USD/40ft container, including BAF & THC both ends, 8 individual routes, excluding intra-Asia routes; 4) Shanghai Shipping Exchange, in USD/20ft ctnr & USD/40ft ctnr for US routes, including BAF, EBAF, CAF, PSS, WRS, PCS & SCS/SCF/PTF/PCC, excl. THC, 15 routes from Shanghai; 5) Source: DHL, in US$ECONOMIC OUTLOOK GDP GROWTH BY REGION1)INFLATION, Y