2023年3月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态：商品房销售明显复苏，境内债发行持续回温

请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 2023 年 4 月 23 日 远东研究·行业研究 摘 要 作者：梅芷菁 邮箱：research@fecr.com.cn 商品房量价：3 月份 30 大中城市商品房成交面积同比上涨43.59%，接近过去 10 年均值水平。十大城市商品房库存去化周期继续缩短。百城新建住宅平均价格同比下跌 0.07%，主要受到三线城市住宅价格下跌影响。 新开工面积：3 月全国房屋新开工面积为 10554 万 m2，同比下降 29.03%，降幅较 2022 年全年 39.40%的跌幅收窄。长期来看，新开工面积仍处低位。 政策：2023 年政府工作报告中指出，未来要继续防范房地产业引发系统性风险；自然资源部、银保监会联合印发《关于协同做好不动产“带押过户”便民利企服务的通知》。地方层面，衡水、沈阳下调首套房贷利率，各地继续积极出台购房支持政策，包括提供购房补贴、放松限购、降低房贷首付比例、提高房贷额度、放宽房贷资格限制、调整公积金政策等。 重点房企：3 月份 TOP100 房企销售总额同比增长 24.6%；荣盛发展、美好置业、广宇集团为子公司提供担保；卓越集团、星河控股、京基集团等 6 家民企与工行建立战略合作关系；中交地产与中信银行北京分行签署战略合作协议。 债券发行与到期：3 月份房地产行业共发行债券 775.22 亿元，偿还债券 987.04 亿元，通过债市净融资-211.82 亿元。 信用事件与利差：3 月份有 3 只债券违约，13 只债券展期。无主体和债券的信用级别被下调。3 月 27 日兴业研究提供的 房 地 产 行 业 债 券 信 用 利 差 （ 中 位 数 ） 较 上 月 末 下 降11.59BP。 总结与展望：需求方面，社会经济活动与房地产市场需求复苏，各地继续积极出台购房支持政策，未来新建商品房需求有望继续改善。供给方面，新开工面积处于低位或将影响未来一到两年的市场供给量。防范化解风险仍将作为房地产行业的重要任务，预期未来优质房企信用将较为稳定，同时仍需关注房地产行业的持续分化与尾部房企的违约风险。 相关研究报告： 1. 《商品房销售有所复苏，债券发行继续回温——2023 年 2月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态》，2023.3.20 2. 《2023 年 1 月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态：行业支持政策持续推出，债券发行量开始回温》，2023.2.20 3. 《多家房企实施股权增资，行业资产负债状况将改善——2022 年 12 月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态》，2023.1.11 商品房销售明显复苏，境内债发行持续回温 ——2023 年 3 月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 Monthly Industry Observation of China April 23rd, 2023 Summary In terms of sales volumes and prices of commercialized buildings, the floor space of commercialized buildings sold in 30 large and medium-sized cities has increased by 43.59% year-on-year in March, close to the average level of the past 10 years. The destocking cycle of commercial housing in the ten major cities continued to shorten. The average price of newly built residential buildings in “100 cities” has decreased by 0.07% year-on-year, mainly due to the decline of prices in third-tier cities. In terms of new construction area, the national new housing construction area in March was 105.54 million m², and declined by 29.03% year-on-year, remaining at a low level. In terms of policies, according to the 2023 government work report, we will continue to prevent systemic risks caused by the real estate sector. The Ministry of Natural Resources and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission jointly issued “the Notice on Coordination of Real Estate Transfer with Mortgage for the Convenience of People and Enterprise”. At the local level, Hengshui and Shenyang lowered interest rates on first-home mortgages. The support policies for housing purchases have been constantly introduced in various regions, including providing subsidies for housing purchases, relaxing purchase restrictions, reducing the down payment ratio of housing loans, increasing the amount of housing loans, relaxing the restrictions on the qualification of housing loans, adjust housing provident fund policies, etc. In terms of key real estate companies, the sales amount of TOP100 real estate comp