2022年四季度投资策略报告

招商基金投资策略报告 2022 年·四季度 1 目 录 1 宏观经济环境··················································································································· 2 1.1 海外市场 ·················································································································································2 1.2 国内市场 ·················································································································································3 2 大类资产观点··················································································································· 6 2.1 A 股市场 ··················································································································································6 2.2 债券市场 ·················································································································································8 2.3 港股市场 ·················································································································································8 2.4 美股市场 ·················································································································································9 2.5 原油市场 ·············································································································································· 10 2.6 黄金市场 ·············································································································································· 11 2.7 汇率市场 ·············································································································································· 12 3 股债投资策略················································································································· 14 3.1 A 股投资策略 ······································································································································· 14 3.2 债券投资策略 ······································································································································ 17 3.2.1 利率产品 ······································································································································ 17 3.2.2 信用产品 ······································································································································ 19 3.2.3 可转债 ·········································································································································· 21 4 大类资产配置策略 ········································································································· 22 2 招商基金 2022 年四季度投资策略报告 1 宏观经济环境 1.1 海外市场 三季度美股回顾：鹰派预期反复扰动，美债收益率持续走强，三季度美股市场呈“倒 V 型”态势。美联储 9 月议息会议中再次加息 75bp，鲍威尔鹰派表态加码，可能未来还会继续分阶段再加息 100 或 125bp，具体取决于美国国内的就业和通胀表现，此前基于衰退担忧而逆转加息预期的博弈可能被证伪。鉴于“终点利率高+持续时间长”的预期得到强化，美股对此反应较为剧烈。同时，9 月新增非农就业超过市场预期达 26.3 万人，失业率降低到 3.5%，打破了过去 60 年“经济弱、失业升”的历史规律。强劲的劳动力市场使得美国经济目前尚未进入“