2022年5月投资策略报告

招商基金投资策略报告 2022 年·5 月 1 目 录 1 宏观经济环境 ·················································································································· 2 1.1 海外市场 ····················································································································································2 1.2 国内市场 ····················································································································································3 2 大类资产观点··················································································································· 6 2.1 A 股市场 ·····················································································································································6 2.2 债券市场 ····················································································································································7 2.3 港股市场 ····················································································································································8 2.4 美股市场 ·················································································································································· 10 2.5 原油市场 ················································································································································· 11 2.6 黄金市场 ················································································································································· 11 2.7 汇率市场 ················································································································································· 13 3 股债投资策略················································································································· 14 3.1 A 股投资策略 ·········································································································································· 14 3.2 债券投资策略 ········································································································································· 16 3.2.1 利率产品 ············································································································································· 16 3.2.2 信用产品 ············································································································································· 18 3.2.3 可转债 ················································································································································· 20 2 招商基金 2022 年 5 月投资策略报告 1 宏观经济环境 1.1 海外市场 4 月美股回顾：加息预期不断升温，美债利率快速攀升，4 月美股市场出现一定的调整。截至 4 月 29 日，联邦基金利率期货隐含的 2022 年上半年加息次数抬升至 4.5 次，2022 年全年的预期加息次数抬升至 10.1 次。从指数表现上来看，4 月美股纳斯达克指数下跌 13.26%，标普 500 指数下跌 8.80%，道琼斯工业指数下跌4.91%，三大股指 4 月跌幅均超 4%。随着地缘局势不确定性的持续，叠加美国通胀预期的走高与流动性收紧的加剧，美股波动率上升。截至 4 月 29 日 VIX 指数为 33.4，处于 1990 年以来的 95%分位数水平，全球风险溢价指数也处于历史相对高位。 5 月美股展望：1）美联储 5 月 FOMC