2022年下半年投资策略报告

招商基金投资策略报告 2022 年·下半年 1 目 录 1. 宏观经济环境··················································································································· 2 1.1 海外市场 ·················································································································································2 1.2 国内市场 ·················································································································································3 2. 大类资产观点··················································································································· 6 2.1 A 股市场 ··················································································································································6 2.2 债券市场 ·················································································································································7 2.3 港股市场 ·················································································································································8 2.4 美股市场 ·················································································································································8 2.5 原油市场 ·················································································································································9 2.6 黄金市场 ·············································································································································· 10 2.7 汇率市场 ·············································································································································· 11 3. 股债投资策略················································································································· 12 3.1 A 股投资策略 ······································································································································· 12 3.2 债券投资策略 ······································································································································ 15 3.2.1 利率产品 ······································································································································ 15 3.2.2 信用产品 ······································································································································ 17 3.2.3 可转债 ·········································································································································· 19 2 招商基金 2022 年下半年投资策略报告 1. 宏观经济环境 1.1 海外市场 上半年美股回顾：美联储结束 QE（量化宽松政策），加息缩表节奏加强，美债利率加速上行，上半年美股市场震荡下行。2022 年 3 月美联储结束量化宽松政策，经历了上半年的三次 FOMC 会议后，联邦基金利率上调至 1.5%-1.75%区间。美联储宣布在 6 月 1 日开始缩表，初始缩表速度为最高 475 亿美元/月，并在 3 个月后加速为 950 亿美元/月。相较于上一轮缩表（2017-2019 年），本轮缩表在规模和节奏上均显著提升。受加息预期推动，10 年期美债利率同样快速上升，一度触及 3.5%的水平，截至 6 月 30 日，十年期美债利率为2.98%。从指数表现上来看，2022 上半年美股纳斯达克指数累计下跌 29.51%，标普 500 指数和道琼斯工业指数上半年分别下跌 20.58%和 15.31%，三大股指上半年整体趋势下行。继一季度美