亚太地区电动汽车行业-韩国电动汽车电池之旅的收获：在原材料通胀中关注下一代技术的差异化

Asia Pacific Equity Research23 June 2022 EV Battery and MaterialsKorea EV battery tour takeaway: Focus on next-gen technology differentiation amid raw material inflationTechnology - EV Battery and Battery MaterialJay Kwon AC(82-2) 758-5725jay.h.kwon@jpmorgan.comBloomberg JPMA KWON <GO>J.P. Morgan Securities (Far East) Limited, Seoul BranchAsia Oil, Chemical & EV batteryParsley Rui Hua Ong AC(852) 2800-8509parsley.rh.ong@jpmorgan.comBloomberg JPMA ONG <GO>J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/ J.P. Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) LimitedSee page 17 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.www.jpmorganmarkets.comWe hosted an EV battery tour last week, and over 30 investors attended on/offline (see summary table on p.2 and details on pp.3-15). While overall EV demand appears softer, suppliers remained firm on both near- and long-term growth prospects, and their stance toward the chip shortage has turned constructive. We find the Korean battery value chain’s technology initiatives (on both performance and cost) impressive amid continuing raw material inflation. Last, we believe the recent raw material pricing trend (stabilizing nickel vs. upward lithium – note) favors the high-nickel battery supply chain (mainly Korean suppliers) and point tothe U.S. policy update as the next key sector catalyst. We maintain our secular long-term growth and constructive stance on the sector. Order of preference within the Korea battery chain: upstream cathode (L&F/EBM) > cell (LGES/SSDI/SKInno) = foil (SKC) > separator (SKIET). However, when raw material prices starts normalizing, cell makers could show a better performance vs. the rest of materials upon margin improvement. Softer demand outlook, robust 2H22E recovery, improving chip shortage.SNE research guided to 43% EV/PHEV unit growth for CY22E (5% below year-beginning target), and we generally pick up slower order trends from pouch-type batteries relative to cylindrical (L&F) and prismatic. Most vendors shared that OEMs are accelerating 2H22 build plans to try to meet original 2022 business targets and believe the chip shortage is on an improving trend (in line with the JPM research podcast published on 21 June by Jose Asumendi and Sandeep Deshpande). In terms of battery production progress from EU suppliersand auto OEMs, we haven’t seen meaningful progress to concern S-D dynamics. Greenflation and cost reduction challenges. Battery prices are continuously rising due to raw material price inflation (mainly metals) and suppliers’ concern about short-term margin headwinds (higher at cell vs. cathode/foil) due to mismatches in cost pass