新兴市场投资策略-22年下半年，全球金融条件持续收紧仍将是新兴市场固定收益的挑战

Global Emerging Markets Research10 June 2022 Emerging Markets Outlook and StrategyOngoing tightening in global financial conditions will remain a challenge for EM fixed income in 2H22Emerging Markets StrategyLuis Oganes AC(44-20) 7742-1420luis.oganes@jpmorgan.comJonny Goulden(44-20) 7134-4470jonathan.m.goulden@jpmorgan.comJ.P. Morgan Securities plcSee page 89 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.www.jpmorganmarkets.comKey topics EM fixed income will remain challenged into H2 by the tightening in global financial conditions in order to tame inflation. We stay UW EM local bonds and EM FX, and MW EM sovereigns and corporates where we revise spread forecasts higher.Macro developments EM growth has withstood a barrage of shocks since the start of this year. In 2H, much hinges on the tug-of-war between a resilient private sector and inflation. Facing high inflation and already well-advanced hiking cycles, EM central banks must decide when enough is enough. Despite a worsening in twin deficits relative to last year, the risk of a late-cycle crisis for the larger EM countries is mitigated by excess savings positions; for more vulnerable frontier markets those risks are higher.Top trading themes EM local markets - FX: UW overall; EM FX is likely to underperform as USD strength is set to continue, particularly versus commodity importers, and real EM FX carry is low given the current account deficits of many EMs. We are UW/short in EM Asia (PHP, INR, KRW, CNY) and EMEA EM (CZK, HUF and TRY), while more balanced in Latam (OW CLP versus UW COP). EM local markets - Rates: UW overall; EM inflation continues to be revised higher, with EM rates typically only peaking late into hiking cycles and risk premia is currently not high. UWs/payers are concentrated in CEE, Israel, EM Asia ex-China, Chile and Colombia. We see scope for outperformance in selected high yielders (South Africa and Brazil flatteners). EM sovereigns: Commodity prices continue to cushion a large share of countries, particularly in reducing default risks. Still, repayment capacity is front and center and the EM sovereign HY default rate could reach 10% this year. We revise spreads higher but still look for modest tightening by year-end, looking for EMBIGD at 425bp. Adopt more segmented strategies, favoring distressed (OW Sri Lanka) where recovery is expected to be higher, and low-cash-price IG where there is attractive convexity (Mexico and Chile curve flatteners), while staying wary of “middle” EMBIGD beta (UW Turkey, Kenya, Costa Rica).  EM corporates: Stay MW CEMBI overall and modestly OW Asia regionally,while globally preferring credits benefitting from higher commodity prices.Strong standalone corporate fundamentals and low leverage provide buffersagainst rising rates.ContentsEM top trade recommendations......................3Executive Summary ........................................4EM Technicals..........................