美股运输与物流行业-2022年第一季度回顾；聚焦中国封锁的影响，UPS降级

www.jpmorganmarkets.comNorth America Equity Research13 May 2022Equity Ratings and Price TargetsMkt CapPriceRatingPrice TargetCompanyTicker($ mn)CCYPriceCurPrevCurEnd DatePrev End DateC.H. RobinsonCHRW US14,234.42USD107.71OWn/c120.00Dec-22n/cn/cCanadian National RailwayCNR CN78,211.98CAD145.12Nn/c162.00Dec-22159.00n/cCanadian Pacific RailwayCP CN63,385.85CAD88.66OWn/c113.00Dec-22n/cn/cUnited Parcel ServiceUPS US157,033.40USD178.65NOW202.00Dec-22229.00n/cSource: Company data, Bloomberg Finance L.P., J.P. Morgan estimates. n/c = no change. All prices as of 12 May 22.Transportation & Logistics1Q22 Review: Themes, FAQs and Top Picks; Focus: Impact of China's Lockdowns, Downgrading UPS Airfreight & Surface TransportationBrian P. Ossenbeck, CFA AC(1-212) 622-1023brian.p.ossenbeck@jpmorgan.comBloomberg JPMA OSSENBECK <GO>J.P. Morgan Securities LLCKellen J Curry(1-212) 622-0717kellen.j.curry@jpmchase.comJ.P. Morgan Securities LLCGrady Carr(1-212) 622-1251grady.carr@jpmchase.comJ.P. Morgan Securities LLCPiyush Khaitan+91-22 61251053piyush.khaitan@jpmchase.comJ.P. Morgan India Private LimitedSee page 50 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.The recent correction in the sector generated significant interest over the last six weeks as new investors looked for opportunities but didn’t appear to be in a hurry withlingering macro uncertainty and spot rates that just crashed through the bull case floor. The freight market is also full of crosscurrents including spiking diesel prices, poor railroad service, and concerns of a back-half recovery as the PMI also starts to fade. China’s COVID lockdown is the most prominent wildcard, and we think it definitely creates headwinds for U.S. freight activity this summer before it potentially generates a recovery in the fall. A freight recession appears more likely against this backdrop, so we don’t think the truckers are completely out of the woods yet, but we’re keeping a close eye on KNX where estimates have already peaked, which is needed to see a trough in the stock. Conditions continued to change throughout earnings season, and we are boosting our Canadian rail estimates for a 12%+ rate increase on regulated Canadian grain. Despite increasing competition noted in our takeaways from the Future of Supply Chain conference (details here), the near term looks strong for C.H. Robinson with spreads at a record discount in April and we are taking up estimates well above consensus again for 2Q22. We are downgrading UPS to Neutral after pressure continues mounting on the U.S. consumer and e-comm growth decelerates;we previously flagged these risks to parcel pri