2021年的世界：尾声（英）

SPECIAL© 2021 Observer Research Foundation. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, copied, archived, retained or transmitted through print, speech or electronic media without prior written approval from ORF.no. 177The World in 2021: An EpilogueHarsh V PantEditorD E C E M B E R 2 0 2 12There is a sense of déjà vu as a new variant of the novel coronavirus has once again pushed nations, big and small, to impose lockdowns and socio-economic restrictions on their populations. It comes at a time when a palpable sense of hope was emerging—that perhaps the global economy could revive, and the health threat of the pandemic has waned. The COVID-19 pandemic, however, continues to cast its long shadow on the world two years since the first reports of a “strange” respiratory disease came out of China. The global health crisis has led to a global wealth crisis, with far-reaching consequences for geopolitics and international affairs. As 2021 comes to an end, we look back at a year whose devastating impacts continue to be felt in large parts of the world. We now know that we cannot simply wish COVID-19 away, and we will have to live with it for longer; it is the contours of such co-existence that are far from clear. Global politics continue to be volatile; indeed, the geopolitical trends are solidifying with an alacrity that was only in the realm of speculation when the COVID-19 crisis began. The rise of China has forced countries across the world to re-assess their stakes, in turn ushering in a phase of tumultuous adjustments. IntroductionAttribution: Harsh V Pant, Ed., “The World in 2021: An Epilogue,” ORF Special Report No. 177, December 2021, Observer Research Foundation.3Great-power contestations are rising and the US-China faultline is widening by the day. It did not take long for the world to see that Donald Trump was not really an exception; Joe Biden’s presidency has so far largely taken off from where Trump left, albeit with minor changes. This struggle for supremacy between the extant pre-eminent power and its foremost challenger is putting pressures on the global order in unprecedented ways. International institutions are withering under the weight of the rivalry; the normative shift underway is a distinct break from the post-1945 liberal consensus; and new kinds of balancing and bandwagoning among the states are visible. Amid the churning, the Indo-Pacific region has become the centre of gravity of global geo-strategy. It is a pattern that is reflected in the global powers trying to reclaim their own space in this vast maritime geography. It is also underlined by the emergence of a multitude of variable geometries in the region that fill the void left by an absent institutional architecture. Coalitions of the willing are taking the place of formal alliances, with names like QUAD and AUKUS reverberating across the region this past year. Across the world, democracies are facing challenges and states are leaning in on au