奥库斯与印度洋-太平洋东部不断演变的安全架构（英）

IssueBriefISSUE NO. 542MAY 2022© 2022 Observer Research Foundation. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, copied, archived, retained or transmitted through print, speech or electronic media without prior written approval from ORF. AUKUS and the Eastern Indo-Pacific’s Evolving Security ArchitectureAbstract The formation of AUKUS (a security alliance between Australia, the UK, and the US) and its likely forward momentum in the near- and medium-term is certain to redefine the security architecture in the eastern Indo-Pacific region. Given the twin objectives of maintaining the balance of power and ensuring deterrence against China, several new initiatives and defence agreements between the member countries are on the anvil. The interface of AUKUS with existing US alliance and partnership arrangements in the region, coordination with other regional frameworks including the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, and responses from China, Russia and other key players will be central to the trajectory—and consequences—of the grouping’s evolution. Girish Luthra01Attribution: Girish Luthra, “AUKUS and the Eastern Indo-Pacific’s Evolving Security Architecture,” ORF Issue Brief No. 542, May 2022, Observer Research Foundation.3The evolving narrative on the Indo-Pacific region witnessed a major development in September 2021 with the formation of AUKUS, a security and defence arrangement between Australia, the UK, and the US. The brief joint statement announcing its creation1 indicated that AUKUS is strictly for the Indo-Pacific region and will focus on information and technology sharing, defence capabilities, and strengthening related industrial bases and supply chains. The tripartite agreement also aims to share sensitive nuclear submarine technology with Australia and jointly strengthen capabilities in key areas like cyber, artificial intelligence, quantum technologies, and the undersea domain.The announcement of the new security grouping received considerable attention and discussion over three crucial aspects—its objectives and structure; the potential impact on the emerging geostrategic environment in the Indo-Pacific; and the plausible trajectory of cooperation, competition, and rivalry between the big powers. Political reactions (or the lack there of) and commentary have indicated varied assessments of the grouping’s likely effects—from strengthening stability through deterrence, to disturbing the fragile security environment in the region through a new-age Cold War and exacerbating the arms race and bloc politics. In the weeks following the announcement, much of the debate was centred on the new submarine deal with Australia. This was also linked to the cancellation of the US$66 billion deal between Australia and France’s Naval Group for modified Barracuda class conventional submarines.2 The new submarine deal led to a major controversy between the AUKUS countries and France, casting a shadow on French ties with the US, Au