锻造抗中国供应商契约（英）

IssueBriefISSUE NO. 547MAY 2022© 2022 Observer Research Foundation. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, copied, archived, retained or transmitted through print, speech or electronic media without prior written approval from ORF. Forging China-Resistant Supplier CompactsAbstract China’s approach to trade has stood impervious to change. It is time for a new geoeconomic approach to counter China. Like-minded nations can fashion rapid arrangements to grow the supply chains that matter most, such as for electric vehicles (EV). The US and India, plus Australia, Canada, Japan, Britain, Taiwan, Korea, and Mexico can form an EV supply chain compact to create a level playing field within the group and incentivise their private sectors to produce batteries, semiconductors, sensors, and network hardware, while handicapping subsidised Chinese Communist Party-controlled entities. Jeffrey Jeb Nadaner01Attribution: Jeffery Jeb Nadaner, “Forging China-Resistant Supplier Compacts,” ORF Issue Brief No. 547, May 2022, Observer Research Foundation.3Over the last two decades, the People’s Republic of China has aggressively pursued a dominant position in the global political and economic system. This will enable it to make the lion’s share of the world’s key goods, including microelectronics, advanced materials for batteries and energy storage, new energy technologies, and permanent magnets. The US and its partner countries recognise the economic and national security risks of over-relying on China for the crucial inputs and technologies that will define the 21st century. No country can afford to lose any more manufacturing capacity—people, equipment, research, and development (R&D), and management and organisational skills—of its most advanced sectors to China. If such capacity is lost or severely degraded, it will threaten many countries’ economies and millions of jobs, and may also raise new national security risks.China’s whole-of-nation approach to outmanoeuvring foreign competitors, abetted by abusive and sometimes illegal practices, appears impervious to change within the incumbent trading system. There is little reasonable sign that attempting, yet again, to enforce existing global agreements—much less negotiating their replacements—will yield better results. To forestall ceding more manufacturing output and control over critical supply chains to China, other nations must be prepared to rethink long-standing conventions about international trade.In place of a centralised, exhaustively negotiated, and all-encompassing global regime, it is time to consider a more realistic alternative—groups of nations fashioning arrangements to govern the supply chains that matter most. The groupings can be regional, values-based, and driven by national and economic security concerns with respect to critical technologies and materials. The common thread of these multinational arrangements will be enhancing domestic production and curbing Chin