24个月大流行病：评估（英）

IssueBriefISSUE NO. 545MAY 2022© 2022 Observer Research Foundation. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, copied, archived, retained or transmitted through print, speech or electronic media without prior written approval from ORF. The Pandemic at 24 Months: An Assessment Abstract Two years since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, an estimated 14-24 million people have died worldwide due to the coronavirus or the chaos of lockdowns and other impacts. To a great extent, much of this current state of the world is due to human health being profoundly misunderstood and neglected in international relations and national politics. This brief discusses two principles that can help understand why this pandemic is not at an end despite the boon of vaccines, and why humankind is unprepared for the next pandemic. Sridhar Venkatapuram01Attribution: Sridhar Venkatapuram, “The Pandemic at 24 Months: An Assessment,” ORF Issue Brief No. 545, May 2022, Observer Research Foundation. 3On 11 March 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak, which originated in Wuhan, China, a global pandemic. In the two years since, no country has been able to hold off the virus at its national borders. And no country—or its people—has been able to avoid the impact of responses to contain the pandemic, from local to global. It has indeed been a modern global event. Every single person has been harmed by the pandemic in some way, not least by the addition of a new threat to their health and wellbeing. Nearly 24 million people are estimated to have died so far due to the virus and pandemic responses, which is four times more than the official COVID-19 death statistics. The number of deaths continues to rise daily, now largely in low and middle-income countries.1 Beyond deaths, the long-term health harms from infections (‘long-COVID’) and mental health impacts are still unclear, but certain. The knock-on effects in terms of social, political, economic, and other harms will be felt for years to come, particularly by the worse-off and vulnerable within and across countries.As the world marked two years since the pandemic was announced, China, once again, implemented an enormous lockdown in Changchun—a city of over nine million people—to stave off rising infections.2 This drastic approach was repeated despite the advent of vaccines, mass testing, and lower fatalities because people are still spreading infections, and also to prevent further damage to the country’s global standing from another wave or variant originating within its borders. At the same time, a new wave of infections and hospitalisations in Europe and the US appeared to have begun, following on from their removal of all disease control restrictions to return to normalcy.3 Additionally, a few days before the two-year anniversary, Russia invaded Ukraine, further exacerbating a refugee crisis and raising the possibility of a protracted war in E