2021年10月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态：房地产销售依旧不佳，高负债房企信用风险仍很高

请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 2021 年 11 月 9 日 远东研究·行业研究 摘 要 作者：申学峰 邮箱：research@fecr.com.cn 商品房量价：10 月份 30 大中城市商品房成交面积环比下降 7.46%，同比下降 26.15%，成交量仍大幅低于往年同期。百城新建住宅平均价格同比上涨 3.08%，房价增速进一步放缓。 房地产贷款：三季末房地产开发贷款余额同比仅增长0.02%，增速比上季末低 2.8 个百分点。个人住房贷款余额同比增长 11.3%，增速比上季末低 1.7 个百分点。 政策：央行在三季度金融统计数据发布会上回应房地产热点问题，提出要支持房地产合理资金需求，随后刘鹤副总理、易纲行长等也在不同场合释放出政策缓和信号。人大授权国务院在部分地区开展新一轮房地产税改革试点工作，但短期内不会大范围施行。地方上部分城市出台了降低预售条件等政策，以缓解房企经营压力。 重点房企：10 月份 TOP100 房企销售操盘金额环比回升1.4%；阳光城为旗下公司提供担保金额超净资产 3 倍，金科股份为旗下公司提供担保金额超净资产 2 倍；恒大集团以 7700万元出售所持恒大曲美股份，并暂停出售恒大物业股份；花样年、当代置业出现美元债券违约。 债券发行与到期：10 月份房地产行业共发行债券 266.43亿元，通过债市净融资-369.03 亿元。去年 9 月至今年 10 月，国内房地产行业债券存量规模压降了约 2210 亿元。 信用事件与利差：10 月份新增违约债券 2 只，合计逾期本息 1.41 亿元。有 6 家主体和 10 只债券的信用级别被下调。兴业房地产行业债券信用利差（中位数）下降了 9.36BP，AA 级信用利差上升了 20.38BP。 总结与展望：尽管近期房地产金融政策缓和，房地产开发项目得到了更多信贷资金支持，但是 10 月份房地产销售表现依旧不佳，房企仍旧面临销售回款受阻的问题。因此部分高负债房企的信用风险依旧很高，后期需要重点关注楼市销售情况是否会有明显好转。 相关研究报告： 3.《商品房成交量连续出现下滑，华夏幸福公布债务重组方案——2021 年 9 月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态》，2021.10.13 2.《商品房成交量大幅下滑，新增 4 只房地产债券违约——2021 年 8 月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态》，2021.09.09 3.《重点房企买地金额被限制，蓝光发展 13 只债券违约——2021 年 7 月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态》，2021.08.10 房地产销售依旧不佳，高负债房企信用风险仍很高 ——2021 年 10 月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 Monthly Industry Observation of China November 9th, 2021 Summary of Opinions In terms of sales volumes and prices of commercialized buildings, the floor space of commercialized buildings sold in 30 large and medium-sized cities has fell by 7.46% month-on-month and 26.15% year-on-year in October, which was still significant lower than in same period of previous years. The average price of newly built residential buildings in “100 cities” has risen by 3.08% year-on-year, and the rate of increase has declined further. In terms of real estate loan, at the end of the third quarter, the balance of real estate development loans has only increased by 0.02% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 2.8 percentage points lower than that at the end of the previous quarter. The balance of personal housing loans has increased by 11.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 1.7 percent point lower than that at the end of the previous quarter. In terms of policies, the People’s Bank of China has responded to real estate hot issues at the third quarter financial statistics release conference and proposed to support reasonable real estate funding needs. Subsequently, Deputy Prime Minister Liu He and Governor of the People's Bank of China Yi Gang also released policy easing signals on different occasions. The National People's Congress has authorized the State Council to carry out a new round of real estate tax reform pilot work in some areas, but it will not be implemented on a large scale in the short term. Some local cities have introduced policies such as lowering the pre-sale conditions to ease the operating pressure of real estate companies. In terms of k