新兴市场投资策略：直到年中，新兴市场固定收益市场的逆风仍大于顺风

Global Emerging Markets Research06 May 2021 Emerging Markets Outlook and StrategyHeadwinds still blowing stronger than tailwinds for EM fixed income into mid-yearEmerging Markets StrategyLuis Oganes AC(44-20) 7742-1420luis.oganes@jpmorgan.comJonny Goulden(44-20) 7134-4470jonathan.m.goulden@jpmorgan.comJ.P. Morgan Securities plcSee page 36 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.www.jpmorganmarkets.comKey topics Lacking positive catalysts, EM is unlikely to escape the drags from Q2-Q3 growth underperformance; we have reduced risk into the past month’s rebound. We stay UW EM local rates (trimmed via Asia), moved UW EM FX and tookprofit on OW EM sovereign credit to MW, while staying OW EM corporates. Commodity prices have not been good signals to position for EM FX catch-up trades, with commodity momentum best positioned for via country crosses.Macro developments The divergence between EM and DM growth is becoming more apparent in the latest high frequency data. The EM-DM growth differential has not turned thisnegative for such a prolonged period since the late 1990s. Rising commodity prices, coupled with EM FX weakness in high-yielders and ongoing supply bottlenecks, are set to keep inflation firm in the coming months. India’s COVID-19 health crisis deepens as the rest of EM tries to keep new variants under control. Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand have already announced a rollback of easing measures; CEE ramps up the pace of vaccinations.Top trading themes EM local markets - FX: UW overall. We have been reducing EM risk in recent weeks, and we hold UW FX given the shrinking list of attractive idiosyncratic opportunities and an upcoming period of EM growth underperformance. Our UWs are focused in low yielding currencies (PLN, HUF, PHP), partially balanced with higher yielding OWs (MXN, ZAR). In outright trades, we hold longs in ILS, KZT and CNH (vs. TWD). EM local markets - Rates: UW overall, but reduced in size via Asia. UWs are concentrated in more vulnerable low yielders (Chile, Czech Republic, Malaysia, Peru and Poland). But given regional COVID-19 risks we have moved MW Asia Rates (OW Thailand alongside OW China and UW Malaysia).We also added 5y ZAR IRS receivers and stay bullish select frontiers (2y Ghana and Egypt bonds) and Mexico. We hold trades for ASW spread compression; linker outperformance; and on a shifting xccy basis. EM sovereigns: We recently took profits on our OW held since last July as spreads moved near to our end-2021 target, moving back to MW in the EMBIGD. We expect a more range-bound environment ahead for spreads and refocus on RV given idiosyncratic developments. We favor oil names, adding an OW Qatar, and differentiate within Latin America, moving OW Panama and UW Peru, hold a RV to be long Mexico versus Colombia in long-end bonds, and add a 10s30s curve flattener in Mexico.  EM corporates: Maintain OW as we see scope for some more recovery in Asia, imp