2021年4 月官方PMI点评

请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 2021 年 5 月 6 日 远东研究·宏观经济专题 摘 要 制造业扩张力度减弱，海外需求维持良好 ——2021 年 4 月官方 PMI 点评 作 者：徐骥，CFA 邮 箱：research@fecr.com.cn 4 月制造业 PMI 为 51.1%，比上月下降 0.8 个百分点，连续14 个月扩张。新订单指数、生产指数的回落，削弱了制造业的扩张力度。从供需差来看，生产指数和新订单指数之间的差值进一步收窄。中国制造业海外需求良好，新出口订单连续 2 个月扩张。 综合来看，在印度疫情失控的带动下，全球日新增新冠肺炎病例数持续升高，疫苗接种的积极效果被抵消；受益于主要发达经济体的大规模经济刺激政策，中国制造业的海外需求依然强劲。中国国内疫情防控维持平稳局面，国内新冠病毒疫苗接种超 2.4亿剂次；4 月，新增地方政府债券发行量环比大增，高层关注物价稳定。 从企业规模来看，4 月，大、中、小型企业全部维持扩张，但是中、小型企业的扩张强度相对偏低。 PMI 出厂价格指数和主要原材料购进价格指数较上月升高，仍大幅高于荣枯线，4 月工业生产者出厂价格环比料继续上涨。 展望未来，疫苗接种速度的进一步提升或令主要发达经济体更接近于群体免疫，全球范围的疫苗供给不足和分配不均或将得到缓解。近期，世界卫生组织将对中国的两款疫苗进行最后的审查。国际方面，在美国完成贸易政策审查之后，中美双方或将开启新一轮经贸对话。美国已经出台和可能出台的大规模经济刺激政策料给中国制造业企业带来新出口订单需求。长期来看，中美两国既是竞争对手，又是合作伙伴。国内财政政策方面，5 月，新增地方政府债券发行量料将进一步增大，逐步正常化的财政政策料将关注重心移至防范化解地方政府债务风险上。国内货币政策方面，LPR 在连续 12 个月保持不变之后，短期内仍将大概率维持。同时，央行将对美联储可能的政策调整加强观察，一方面需要保持物价稳定，另一方面需要防止资本外流。 相关研究报告： 1.《产成品库存指数升高，制造业迎来“开门红”——2021年 1 月官方 PMI 点评》，2021.2.1 2.《假日因素拖累制造业生产，新出口订单再现收缩——2021 年 2 月官方 PMI 点评》，2021.3.1 3.《节后复产或快于往年，新出口订单重回扩张——2021年 3 月官方 PMI 点评》，2021.4.1 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 FECR Research·China's PMI May 6th, 2021 Summary In March 2021, China’s Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 51.1%, 0.8 percentage points lower than that of the previous month, and expanded for 14 consecutive months. The decreases in the new orders index and production index weakened the expansion of China’s manufacturing industry. From the perspective of the difference between supply and demand, the difference between the production index and the new orders index has narrowed slightly further. Overseas demand for China's manufacturing is good, and new export orders have expanded for two consecutive months. Overall, driven by the out-of-control epidemic in India, the global cases added per day continued to rise, and the positive effects of vaccination was wiped out. Benefiting from the large-scale economic stimulus plans of major developed economies, overseas demand for China's manufacturing remained strong. China kept a stable situation in terms of epidemic control, with more than 240 million doses of vaccines having been administered. In April, the issuance of new local government bonds increased month-on-month, and high-level government officials expressed concern about price stability. In terms of enterprise scale, in April, large, medium, and small-sized enterprises all maintained expansion, but the intensity of expansion of small and medium enterprises was relatively low. The PMI’s producer price index and main raw material purchase price index both increased from the previous month, and were still significantly higher than the threshold. In April, Producer Price Index (PPI) for manufactured goods are expected to continue to rise from the previous