2021年建筑行业观察（1~3月）：制造业投资仍有待恢复，铁路建设或面临收紧

请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 2021 年 4 月 27 日 远东研究·行业研究 制造业投资仍有待恢复，铁路建设或面临收紧 ——2021 年建筑行业观察（1-3 月） 作 者：徐骥，CFA 邮 箱：research@fecr.com.cn 2021 年 3 月，建筑业需求继续增长，第一季度建筑业总产值在低基数效应下累计同比大幅增长 31.8%。 需求端方面，2021 年 1-3 月，固定资产投资累计同比增长25.6%，两年平均增速升至 2.9%。在三大领域中，从两年平均增速来看，房地产开发投资增速最快，基础设施投资由负转正，制造业投资仍为负增长。3 月，建筑业新订单环比加速扩张，地方政府开始发行新增债券。第二季度，新增地方政府债券料将拉升基础设施投资增速。 建筑机械设备方面，3 月，国内市场挖掘机销量两年平均增速大幅低于 2020 年下半年的同比增速。 原材料方面，3 月，建筑业主要原材料价格环比保持上涨。其中，螺纹钢价格继续走高，水泥价格开始回升。 政策方面，《关于进一步做好铁路规划建设工作的意见》对外发布，提出了做好铁路规划建设工作、推动铁路高质量发展的六方面任务，旨在“提高既有资源利用效率”。如果政策对铁路建设有所收紧，那么中国铁建和中国中铁或将受到负面影响；不过，从两家企业的铁路工程订单占比来看，即便政策收紧，受到的负面影响不会很大。2020 年，全国新开工装配式建筑占新建建筑面积的比例约为 20.5%，完成了《“十三五”装配式建筑行动方案》确定的到 2020年达到 15%以上的工作目标。在“十四五”规划中，该目标或将达到30%。 企业方面，广西建工的主体评级展望被调整为负面，主体信用等级仍为 AAA。在控股股东变更为绿地集团以后，在房地产融资政策持续收紧的情况下，未来广西建工的融资或受到一定影响。 摘 要 相关研究报告： 1.《建设工程资质改革精简，福晟、成龙接连“爆雷”——2020 年建筑行业观察（1-11 月）》，2020.12.17 2.《建筑业总产值增速超预期，绿色建造试点瞄准两领域——2020 年建筑行业观察（1-12 月）》，2021.1.25 3.《固定资产投资结构失衡，绿色建筑统一标识起步——2021 年建筑行业观察（1-2 月）》，2021.03.23 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 FECR Research·China's Construction Industry April 27th, 2021 Summary In March 2021, the demand for the construction industry continued growing. The total output value of China’s construction industry in the first quarter has increased significantly by 31.8% year-on-year due to the low base effect. On the demand side, from January to March 2021, China’s fixed asset investment increased by 25.6% year-on-year, and the two-year average growth rate rose to 2.9%. In the three major areas, from the perspective of the two-year average growth rate, real estate development investment had the fastest growth rate, infrastructure investment’s growth rate turned from negative to positive, but manufacturing investment still recorded negative growth. In March, the expansion of new orders for the construction industry accelerated, and local governments initiated the issuance of new bonds. In the second quarter, new local government bonds are expected to boost the growth rate of infrastructure investment. In terms of construction equipment, in March, the two-year average growth rate of excavator sales in the domestic market was significantly lower than the year-on-year growth rate in the second half of 2020. In terms of raw building materials, in March, the prices of major raw materials in the construction industry kept rising month-on-month, among which, rebar prices continued to rise and cement prices rebounded. In terms of industry policies, a guideline on railway planning and construction to promote high-quality development was issued, which put forward six tasks aiming to "improve the efficiency of existing resources." If the policy aimed to tighten up on railway construction, then China Railway Construction Corporation (CRCC) and China Railway Group Limited (known as CREC) may