美股生物制药行业2021年展望

Equity Research 21 December 2020 CORE Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S) AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 45. Restricted - Internal Healthcare The 2021 Biotech/Pharma Outlook Following a strong 2019, the Biotech sector turned in another year of absolute gains (NBI +29%, XBI +55%, S&P500 +15%). Indeed, the biotech outperformance was driven by SMid-cap including MRNA’s +629% rise on the back of a successful COVID-19 vaccine, positive data from innovative therapies across a broad set of indications and accelerated M&A including ALXN, IMMU, MYOK, FTVS, PRVL. Pharma benefitted from receding concerns over drug pricing, continuation of strong launches (ABBV’s Skyrizi and Rinvoq), high-profile clinical wins (LLY’s tirzepatide in diabetes and Verzenio in adjuvant breast cancer, and BMY’s Tyk2 in RA) – but had a wide dispersion of returns (LLY: +30%; MRK: -13%), and underperformed the broader market on the whole (DRG +5%). Regulatory environment continued to be positive with 50 approvals in 2020 after 48 in 2019. Please join us for a call today at 10am ET to discuss biotech/pharma sector outlook and our favorite names (dial-in info and slides to follow). SMid Cap Biotech: For 2021, we continue to see a strong pace of innovation as the key fundamental driver for SMid Cap Biotech sector. Major clinical advancement in 2020 from approaches such as gene and cell therapy (DMD, HemoA, CART, NK CAR, iPSC), gene editing (BT, SCD), IO (TIL), targeted oncology (BCMA, KRAS, menin) would lead to commercial assets revolutionizing current SOC, and accelerate M&A activity from Pharma and large-cap biotech companies. Strategic selection of stocks with late-stage, high-quality assets would generate significant return in 2021. Large Cap Biopharma: Biopharma should continue to benefit from drug pricing risk further receding from near-term concerns, driven by the potential of a split U.S. Congress, the recent Most Favored Nation interim rule being challenged in court, and the increasingly likely outcome that ACA will be upheld. Near-term Alzheimer’s catalysts (LLY N3Pg phase 2 data, Aducanumab PDUFA both in 1Q) and the outcome of 2nd-wave COVID-19 vaccines have the potential to be highly disruptive to the space and should set the tone early in the year, while GILD’s TROPICS-02 Trodelvy trial in HR+ breast cancer (2Qe) will be looked to as an early judge of the company’s recent M&A strategy. Favorite Names – Gould: LLY, MRK Favorite Names – Wang: RGNX, SRPT, BMRN Favorite Names – Lawson: RCUS, SNDX, KURA INDUSTRY UPDATE U.S. Biopharmaceuticals POSITIVE Unchanged U.S. Small & Mid Cap Biotechnology POSI