全球-生物制药行业-全球生物制药：2020年HIF调查结论

Global BioPharma – 2020 HIF Survey TakeawaysSee the end pages of this presentation for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Global Equity ResearchFebruary 2020Conference Call DetailsThursday, February 20 @ 11:00am ET / 16:00 UKContact us or your J.P. Morgan sales representative for details.Eric Joseph AC212-622-0659eric.w.joseph@jpmorgan.comTurner Kufe, MD212-622-4104turner.kufe@jpmchase.comUS SMid Biotechnology EU Pharma & BiotechRichard Vosser (44-20) 7742-6652richard.vosser@jpmorgan.comJames D GordonAC(44-20) 7742-6654james.d.gordon@jpmorgan.comJames P Quigley(44-20) 7742-1444james.quigley@jpmorgan.comSarita Kapila (MD)(44-20) 7134-4189sarita.kapila@jpmchase.comLaerke L Engkilde(44-20) 7742-2917 laerke.enkilde@jpmorgan.com2 In the Dialysis context, respondents were positive on roxa efficacy in Dialysis patients, with more than 80% considering the agent to be very efficacious. There was also an overall positive response to roxadustat’s safety profile in Dialysis, with almost 70% seeing the profile as more favorable than ESAs, only 3% saw the profile as less favorable. Key differentiation was seen from the oral administration profile. In terms of Dialysis adoption, for both the Incident and Prevalent Dialysis population, respondents anticipated HIF use in ~40% of patients by 2023. As to the losers, respondents saw ESA declining at a 13% CAGR, and IV use declining at a 9% CAGR. In Pre-Dialysis, roxadustat was again seen to have very favorable efficacy. And on safety, 80% of respondents thought the profile to be similar to ESAs, 20% more favorable, no one saw the profile as being worse. Again oral administration was seem as the biggest treatment differentiator.  More than 70% of respondents also saw the eGFR progression benefit as important in Pre-Dialysis. Similar to Dialysis, in Pre-Dialysis, respondents saw rapid HIF uptake, with 33% of Anaemia pre-dialysis patients expected to receive the class by 2023. And ESA was seen halving, IV iron use falling by a third. Our company conclusions are summarized at the end of the deck.Key TakeawaysSource: J.P. Morgan Research3SURVEY RESULTS: SCREENING QUESTIONS4Survey launched December 2019 Enrollment criteria: US physicians actively practicing in Nephrology, treating 20 or more Dialysis & Non-Dialysis Chronic Kidney Disease patients. Physicians were required to be at least somewhat familiar (17%) or very familiar with the roxadustat Phase III data, post the presentation at the 2019 American Society of Nephrology Conference.–30 physicians surveyed, all US-based, with on average ~20 years of experience in the space. –Most of th