解锁哥伦比亚能源转型：减少天然气依赖的策略（英）

Unlocking the energy transition in Colombia: Strategies to reduce gas dependency Colombia has lost its self-sufficiency in gas supply. Even under the most likely trajectory of domestic production and installed import capacity, supply would not be sufficient to meet demand from 2030 onwards. Energy efficiency and electrification could mitigate the growth in total gas demand in the coming years. Date of publication: 4 December 2025 Authors: Wilmar Suárez (Ember), Juan Felipe Parra Rodas, María Paulina Vásquez and Verónica Valencia (Transforma) Content Executive Summary 4 Chapter 1: Gas in Colombia: a system caught between limited supply and constant demand 9 Gas and energy transition in Colombia 10 Gas demand in Colombia continues to rise, but with a projected slowdown 12 The use of gas in the industrial and residential sectors 15 Gas in industry, a slowing demand trend 15 Gas in the residential sector, prioritised for cooking 18 Present and future of the national gas supply 20 Projected gas deficit 21 Chapter 2: Driving the gas transition: reducing demand and managing existing supply 24 Increasing energy efficiency in industrial processes 25 Electrification of gas demand for cooking and water heating in the residential sector 26 Cooking 26 Water heating 29 The challenges of electrifying the residential sector 29 Energy efficiency and electrification would reduce gas demand in industry and households over the next decade 30 Managing gas without increasing dependence: short-term options to ensure energy security 32 Chapter 3: Towards an orderly and gradual exit from gas: strategies and recommendations 34 Recommendations for advancing a planned exit from gas use in Colombia 36 Planning and supporting a just and orderly transition 37 Ensuring the conditions for a viable and lasting transition 39 Acknowledgements 41 1 About This report analyses the current status of gas demand in Colombia and the growing need to reduce consumption, given the deficit caused by declining domestic production. It examines potential reductions through the implementation of energy efficiency measures in the industrial sector and through the electrification of end uses in the residential sector, including cooking and water heating. Finally, it presents policy recommendations aimed at reducing dependence on gas and advancing a just energy transition. The report uses Giga British Thermal Units (GBtu) as the unit of measurement for gas, with 1 billion cubic metres (bcm) equivalent to 35,315 GBtu. 2 Key highlights 2030 10% -14% The year when domestic production and installed import capacity in Colombia are projected to fall short of demand. Households needed to switch to electric cooking to maintain residential gas demand in 2030 at the 2024 level. The reduction in gas consumption that could be achieved in the industrial sector by implementing energy efficiency measures. 3 Executive summar