亚开行-如何评估危机风险：亚洲开发银行开发新的预警系统（英）

ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANKHOW TO ASSESS CRISIS RISKSDEVELOPING A NEW EARLY WARNING SYSTEM AT THE ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANKDECEMBER 2025ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANKHOW TO ASSESS CRISIS RISKSDEVELOPING A NEW EARLY WARNING SYSTEM AT THE ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANKDECEMBER 2025 Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO)© 2025 Asian Development Bank6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City, 1550 Metro Manila, PhilippinesTel +63 2 8632 4444; Fax +63 2 8636 2444www.adb.orgSome rights reserved. Published in 2025. ISBN 978-92-9277-531-5 (print); 978-92-9277-532-2 (PDF); 978-92-9277-533-9 (e-book)Publication Stock No. TCS250479-2DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.22617/TCS250479-2The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by ADB in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned.By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area in this document, ADB does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area.This publication is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/. By using the content of this publication, you agree to be bound by the terms of this license. For attribution, translations, adaptations, and permissions, please read the provisions and terms of use at https://www.adb.org/terms-use#openaccess.This CC license does not apply to non-ADB copyright materials in this publication. If the material is attributed to another source, please contact the copyright owner or publisher of that source for permission to reproduce it. ADB cannot be held liable for any claims that arise as a result of your use of the material.Please contact pubsmarketing@adb.org if you have questions or comments with respect to content, or if you wish to obtain copyright permission for your intended use that does not fall within these terms, or for permission to use the ADB logo.Corrigenda to ADB publications may be found at http://www.adb.org/publications/corrigenda.Notes: In this publication, “$” refers to United States dollars. ADB recognizes “Hong Kong” as Hong Kong, China.Cover design by Erickson Mercado. iiiContentsTables and Figures vForeword viAcknowledgments viiAbbreviations viiiExecutive Summary ixChapter 1. Introduction 1 1.1 Revamping ADB’s Early Warning System amid New Policy Challenges 2 1.2 Crisis Forecasting at ADB: The Status Quo 3 1.3 Innovating ADB’s Early Warning System: Machine Learning Models, Shapley Values, 3 and Novel Variables 1.4 Early Warning System Design Steps 4Chap