2026年中国经济展望：挑战超乎表面所见（英文版）

See the end pages of this presentation for analyst certification and important disclosures.China 2026 economic outlook: More challenging than meets the eye Economic ResearchNovember 2025Tingting GeACGreater China Economic Research+852 2800 0143tingting.ge@jpmorgan.comJPMorgan Chase Bank N.A., Hong Kongts.comTongfang YuanGreater China Economic Research+852 2800 0085tongfang.yuan@jpmorgan.comJPMorgan Chase Bank N.A., Hong KongJiayi LiGreater China Economic Research+852 2800 5229jiayi.c.li@jpmorgan.comJPMorgan Chase Bank N.A., Hong KongChina GDP deviation from trendUS average tariff rateUS hyperscaler capexGlobal macro backdropGlobal outlook scenariosjXoZkVdYnVxUMBkZbRdNbRnPpPpNqNeRoPoPiNtRpQbRqQzQuOsPyRxNpPuMGrowth forecast revisionsInflation forecast revisionsDM policy rate changeGlobal macro backdropReal GDP relative to pre-pandemic trend pathTwo key factors affecting the 2026 Chinese economyPolicy shifts and 15th FYP Policy shift since September 2024: A three-arrow approach Policy swing between cyclical and structural rebalancing, which is data-dependent Time inconsistency in economic transformation Boosting domestic demand/consumption/service consumption High-end manufacturing and tech self-sufficiency top the 15th FYP tasks Unified national market and anti-involutionUS-China trade tensions Tariff tensions 2.0 under Trump 2.0: Higher, broader, more disruptive Punitive tariff rates and tit-for-tat retaliation from China A re-escalation of US-China tensions, tariffs remain the key uncertainty US-China fifth-round trade talk in Malaysia, followed by a Presidential summit at APECTariff tensions 2.0 Tariff tensions 2.0 under Trump 2.0 are the biggest external risk for China in 2025 JPM baseline assumption (Nov-2024): US tariffs on China up from 20% to 60%; tariff increase on China’s transshipments (Vietnam, Malaysia); no universal tariff increase. This was a non-consensus cautious view.  The tariff hike came in higher and broader than our assumption. Lack of transparency in tariff objectives: Fentanyl, border control; rebalancing; reshoring; revenue, etc. Tariff peak on China in April: Cumulative tariff increase of 145%; even with a list of exemptions, still 110%.  Product-specific tariffs on steel, aluminum, auto and auto parts, copper, pharma, semiconductors, etc. Tariff truce after Geneva talks: US (China) effective tariff rate on China (US) back to 42% (28%) for 90 days. London talks seem to have focused on easing export controls for rare earths, semiconductors, etc. Stockholm talks: Extension of the US-China tariff truce by another 90 days. Madrid talks and Trump-Xi phone call: Agreement on TikTok. Re-escalation: Tightening export controls on tech/rare earths, port fees, potential 100% US tariff, etc. Malaysia talks: Constructive discussions on fentanyl tariffs, export controls, US soybean exports, TikTok, etc. Trump-Xi Summit on 30 October in South Korea during APEC meeting. Tariff shock: The worst is behind us, but unce