世界铂金投资协会-2025年第三季度白金季度（英）

© 2025 World Platinum Investment Council – WPIC®. All rights reserved.Page 1 of 30PLATINUM QUARTERLYQ3 2025FOREWORDThis Platinum Quarterly presents platinum supply and demand movements for the third quarter of 2025, an updated forecast for 2025f and a first outlook for 2026f. It also provides WPIC’s views on relevant issues and trends for investor exposure to platinum as an investment asset, and an update on how we continue to meet investors’ needs through our product partnerships. The Platinum Quarterly data and commentary (starting on page 5) are prepared independently for WPIC by Metals Focus.After three years of deep deficits, platinum markets are expected to be more balanced in 2026f. The platinum market is forecast to be in a 692 koz deficit in 2025f and move to broadly balanced, small 20 koz surplus in 2026f. A balanced market is unsurprising assuming the build in CME/NYMEX exchange stocks seen in 2025f reverses in 2026f on improved US trade certainty. Moreover, platinum markets are expected to show some limited signs of self-solving for higher prices seen during 2025 by incentivising supply growth (principally recycling) and potentially some profit taking from ETF holders during 2026f. Note that that the platinum price remains ~US$800/oz below its all-time high (adjusted for inflation) and platinum lease rates remain elevated, pointing to the ongoing shortage of metal in the spot market. 2025 platinum market deficit of 692 koz, equivalent to 9% of projected annual demand• Total platinum supply is forecast to decrease by 2% year-on-year to 7,129 koz during 2025f. Mine supply will be depressed (-5% year-on-year) as producers are unable to repeat the drawdown of work-in-process (WIP) inventory seen in 2024. Higher prices will support recycling supply growth of 7% year-on-year, albeit this is insufficient to offset lower mining volumes. • Total platinum demand is expected to decline by 5% year-on-year to 7,821 koz in 2025f. Cyclically weak industrial demand (-22% year-on-year) is the primary factor underpinning decreasing demand in 2025f versus 2024. • The platinum market deficit of 692 koz in 2025f is 158 koz lower than the 850 koz deficit projected in our previous Platinum Quarterly. Supply was revised upwards by 102 koz on a better-than-expected South African mining recovery from a weak Q1 2025, while a 56 koz downward revision to demand primarily reflects a US tariff-related easing of Indian jewellery exports.A balanced platinum market is projected for 2026• Platinum mine supply is forecast to increase 2% in 2026f versus 2025f as some WIP inventory is released. Supply from recycling is set for growth of 10% year-on-year as higher prices incentivise processing of spent autocatalysts and more selling of jewellery scrap. Total platinum supply is forecast to increase by 4% year-on-year during 2026f.• Total platinum demand is forecast to decrease by 6% year-on-year to 7,385 koz in 2026f. Platinum investment demand accounts for 385 koz of