IMF-最低工资与就业：部门和区域视角（英）

Minimum Wage and Employment Sectoral and Regional Perspectives Yan Chen and Jiaxiong Yao WP/25/241 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. 2025 NOV 2 © 2025 International Monetary Fund WP/25/241IMF Working Paper European Department Minimum Wage and Employment: Sectoral and Regional Perspectives Prepared by Yan Chen and Jiaxiong Yao* Authorized for distribution by James Walsh November 2025 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT: Most European countries have a single national minimum wage. An increase in minimum wage implies shocks of different magnitudes to sectors and subnational regions. Using sectoral and regional variations of minimum wage to average wage ratios in European countries, we estimate the dynamic and heterogeneous treatment effects of minimum wage changes on employment through local projections and generalized random forests. We find that the average employment effects of minimum wage increases tend to be negligible in the short term but negative in the medium to long term. The employment effects are heterogeneous in gender, age, the size of the minimum wage increase, and the minimum wage to average wage ratio. Minimum wage increases appear to have a threshold effect on employment at the sectoral level. The employment effects become negative when the minimum wage is above 35 percent of the sectoral average wage. JEL Classification Numbers: J30, E24, C21. Keywords: Minimum wage; employment; treatment effect Author’s E-Mail Address: ychen8@imf.org; jyao@imf.org 2ContentsPageI.Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4II.Empirical Framework . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8A.Local Projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9B.Generalized Random Forests. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10III.Data and Stylized Facts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12A.Minimum wage. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13B.Average wage. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14C.Minimum wage to average wage ratio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15D.Labor Market Outcomes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16IV.Empirical Findings. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22A.Dynamic Impact on Employment Rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .221.Sectoral Level Impact . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .23