IMF-如何将气温上升的影响纳入长期GDP预测（英）

N O T E SHOW TONOTE 25/09How to Include the Effects of Rising Temperatures in Long-Term GDP ProjectionsSamuele Centorrino, Emanuele Massetti, Mehdi Raissi, and Filippos TagklisIMF | How to Note NOTE/2025/009 ©2025 International Monetary Fund How to Include the Effects of Rising Temperatures in Long-Term GDP Projections NOTE/2025/009 Samuele Centorrino, Emanuele Massetti, Mehdi Raissi, and Filippos Tagklis* Cataloging-in-Publication Data IMF Library Names: Centorrino, Samuele, author. | Massetti, Emanuele, 1977-, author. | Raissi, Mehdi, author. | Tagklis, Filippos, author. | International Monetary Fund, publisher. Title: How to include the effects of rising temperatures in long-term GDP projections / Samuele Centorrino, Emanuele Massetti, Mehdi Raissi, and Filippos Tagklis. Other titles: How to notes. Description: Washington, DC : International Monetary Fund, 2025. | Nov. 2025. | NOTE/2025/009. | Includes bibliographical references. Identifiers: ISBN: 9798229030021 (paper) 9798229030366 (ePub) 9798229031790 (WebPDF) Subjects: LCSH: Macroeconomics—Forecasting. | Climate change. Classification: LCC HB172.5.C4 2025 DISCLAIMER: How to Notes offer practical advice from IMF staff members to policymakers on important issues. The views expressed in How to Notes are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. RECOMMENDED CITATION: Centorrino, Samuele, Emanuele Massetti, Mehdi Raissi, and Filippos Tagklis. 2025. “How to Include the Effects of Rising Temperatures in Long-Term GDP Projections.” IMF How to Note 2025/009, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC. Publication orders may be placed online, by fax, or through the mail: International Monetary Fund, Publications Services P.O. Box 92780, Washington, DC 20090, USA Tel.: (202) 623-7430 Fax: (202) 623-7201 E-mail: publications@imf.org bookstore.IMF.org elibrary.IMF.org * The authors are grateful to Dora Benedek and Christine Richmond for continuous support and extensive comments. IMF | How to Note ii Contents Introduction .......................................................................................................................................................... 1 The Empirical Literature on the Macroeconomic Impact of Rising Temperatures .............................................. 3 Unbiased Macroeconomic Estimates of Trend Temperature Increases ............................................................. 4 Impacts of Trend Temperature Increase on GDP Using Climate Scenarios ..................................................... 10 Introducing the Impacts of Trend Temperature Increases in Macroeconomic Projections ............................... 17 Conclusion ......................................................................................................................................................... 18 Appendix 1. Model Specification ..............................