能源转型展望西班牙2024（英）

A national forecast to 2050ENERGY TRANSITION OUTLOOK SPAIN 202423DNV Energy Transition Spain 2024HIGHLIGHTSFOREWORDHIGHLIGHTSHIGHLIGHTSWhen we began in Spain in 1999, our market activities were centred on the early development of renewable energy. Wind and solar power are now the dominant energy sources, and we forecast they will grow 4-fold and 6-fold, respectively, by 2050. The new challenges lie in electrifying more of Spain’s energy use and upgrading grid integration to handle all the renewable electricity. Hydrogen generation and infrastructure will also be part of the future in an energy system that has already signifi-cantly decarbonized the power sector and aims to reduce carbon emissions further. We foresee hydrogen playing a key role in manufacturing from the 2030s onwards, and that in the late 2040s, Spain will start exporting hydrogen within Europe.Since the first ETO in 2017, we have consistently empha-sized that the energy transition is vital for the planet’s health, technologically viable, and economically feasible. Spain’s National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) may not achieve all its targets, but it outlines a vision for the country’s future energy sector. Spain’s annual energy- related emissions peaked at 385 Mt in 2007 and are forecasted to drop to 206 Mt in 2030 and 62 Mt in 2050. However, Spain will not be carbon-neutral by mid-century. Meeting the NECP 2030 goal and the EU ‘net zero by 2050’ target will require more electrification and carbon capture and storage. Spain’s efforts must extend beyond its borders to leverage the lowest costs of renewable energy in Europe and thus among the lowest cost for green hydrogen. Spain’s infrastructure — including electricity networks, gas pipelines, ports, and industrial hubs — must be extensively interconnected with Europe to balance markets and share the benefits of the country’s vast natural resources and commitment to becoming a model sustainable economy. But short-term bottlenecks (e.g. increasing demand, interconnectors, and permitting) must be overcome to allow this to happen.Spain is making progress in transitioning to a greener, more efficient energy mix. But with the country’s ambition to be net zero by mid-century, the transition requires continuity in regulatory frameworks, and a step change in decarbonization across all sectors. We hope this report serves as a guiding light towards a sustainable future in an increasingly complex world. Our 300-strong team here in Spain, supported by 15,000 DNV colleagues worldwide, stands ready to assist you.FOREWORDHIGHLIGHTSSantiago BlancoExecutive VP and Regional DirectorSouthern Europe, MEA and LATAMEnergy Systems, DNVAs DNV in Spain celebrates 25 years’ involvement in the energy sector and the group’s 160th anniversary, I am delighted to present this forecast of Spain’s energy transition to 2050. It combines the expertise of our Energy Transition Outlook (ETO) team in Norway with market insights from our Spanish team to offer valuable