IMF-以色列结构模型（英）

The Israeli Structural Model Daniel Baksa, Yotam Peterfreund, Nadav Poloder, Ivy Sabuga, Tanya Slobodnitsky, and Luis-Felipe Zanna WP/25/213 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. 2025 OCT © 2025 International Monetary Fund WP/25/213IMF Working Paper Institute for Capacity Development The Israeli Structural Model Prepared by Daniel Baksa, Yotam Peterfreund, Nadav Poloder, Ivy Sabuga, Tanya Slobodnitsky, and Luis-Felipe Zanna Authorized for distribution by Natan Epstein October 2025 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT: This paper introduces the Israeli Structural Model (ISM), a New-Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model tailored to reflect key characteristics of the Israeli economy. The ISM incorporates diverse consumer saving behaviors and labor skills, a dynamic high-tech (HT) sector, international trade and capital integration, and comprehensive fiscal components. As an integral part of the Ministry of Finance’s (MOF) Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS), the ISM serves as a macroeconomic policy scenario analysis tool, aiding in policy discussions and decision-making. This paper illustrates the ISM's policy use by evaluating strategies for utilizing additional government revenue generated from the HT sector boom in 2022 and their macroeconomic impacts. It compares three policy options: accelerated public debt reduction, redistribution through transfers, and increased public investment. The findings indicate that increased public investment is the most beneficial strategy, in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, accelerating GDP's convergence to its trend, reducing public debt to GDP ratios, and mitigating real appreciation and the impact on the most vulnerable population. JEL Classification Numbers: E52, E63, F41, F42 Keywords: Israel; Forecasting and Policy Analysis System; DSGE Model; Fiscal Policy; Monetary Policy Author’s E-Mail Address: DBaksa2@imf.org, YotamPe@mof.gov.il, NadavPo@mof.gov.il, SlTat@mof.gov.il, ISabuga@imf.org, FZanna@imf.org IMF WORKING PAPERS The Israeli Structural Model INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 1 WORKING PAPERS The Israeli Structural Model Prepared by Daniel Baksa, Yotam Peterfreund, Nadav Poloder, Ivy Sabuga, Tanya Slobodnitsky, and Luis-Felipe Zanna1 1 The Israeli Structural Model presented in this paper is one of the key outcomes of a technical assistance project on macroeconomic frameworks provided by the IMF’s Institute for Capacity Development (ICD) to