IMF-应对2022年通胀飙升（英）

Navigating the 2022 Inflation Surge: A Comparative Analysis of IT and Non-IT Central BanksPatrick A. Imam and Tigran Poghosyan WP/25/212 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. 2025 OCT * The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the International MonetaryFund or its board. We thank ICD seminar participants and Ivailo Arsov, Andy Berg, Sonali Das, Yasemine Bal Gunduz, Jakob deHaan, Martin Fukac, Thomas Harjes, Subir Lall, Rodolfo Maino, Valeriu Nalban, Jan-Egbert Sturm, Ann-Margret Westin for usefulcomments. Nick Staalduinen provided excellent research assistance and Von Allena for administrative support.© 2025 International Monetary Fund WP/25/212IMF Working Paper Institute for Capacity Development Navigating the 2022 Inflation Surge: A Comparative Analysis of IT and Non-IT Central Banks Prepared by Patrick A. Imam and Tigran Poghosyan* Authorized for distribution by Ali Alichi October 2025IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT: This paper examines the effectiveness of inflation targeting (IT) frameworks during the global inflation surge of 2022, a shock primarily driven by large adverse supply side disruptions following the onset of the War in Ukraine. The empirical findings suggest that (de jure) IT frameworks did not systematically deliver better inflation outcomes during this episode. The decline in inflation back towards historical norms was broadly comparable across (de jure) IT and non-IT country groups. While (de jure) IT central banks hiked their policy rates by more than non-IT central banks on average, this did not help with achieving better inflation outcomes. Also, we find no evidence of a more flexible exchange rate after the shock in (de jure) IT central banks. These findings suggest that (de jure) IT does not necessarily imply an advantage for monetary policy, particularly in the face of large, global supply shocks. Further analysis is warranted on how monetary policy frameworks can adapt to an environment characterized by more frequent and persistent supply-side disruptions. While using a de facto classification of IT regimes would be preferable, the absence of a comprehensive database makes this infeasible. RECOMMENDED CITATION: “Navigating the 2022 Inflation Surge: A Comparative Analysis of IT and Non-IT Central Banks” by Patrick A Imam and Tigran Poghosyan IMF Working Paper No. 25/212JEL Classification Numbers: E31, E52, E58, E61 Keywords: Inflation Targeting; Cen