全球-投资策略-2020年汇丰银行多资产策略汇总

Disclosures & Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. Issuer of report: HSBC Bank plc View HSBC Global Research at: https://www.research.hsbc.com  The global economy is likely to keep muddling through  Out-of-consensus call for resilient USD, low core bond yields  We include views on equities, EM, trade and climate change Economics: Consumer spending should keep the global economy muddling through, but weak growth, stubbornly low inflation and low rates means debt burdens will continue to grow. With investment spending set to remain constrained, we forecast growth at a decidedly mediocre 2.5% in 2020 and 2.6% for 2021 and no significant rise in inflation. Central banks will either stay on hold or continue to ease policy. Fixed income: The perennial expectation for cyclical recovery helps keep bond yields low when it means there is a short duration position. Causality for G3 rates markets came from Europe and Japan, not just the US; central banks are settling in for the long haul. We still position for lower yields, with year-end forecasts for 10-year Treasuries and Bunds at 1.50% and minus 60bp, respectively. FX: Our base case is for a resilient to slightly stronger USD in 2020. This once again runs counter to the consensus. FX markets appear to have high hopes for a global reflation trade which should see the USD weaken. We believe that the bigger risk for the USD is actually that it soars again. We cannot rule out a roaring USD in 2020 even if the market wants to write off the greenback once again. Emerging markets: A stabilising global cycle, low rates and rising liquidity all argue for increasing exposure to EM risk, while geopolitical risks, divergent headline-core inflation, high EM debt and limited room for further easing complicate this view. After a significant rally across EM assets in 2019, we advocate for selectivity and vigilance in 2020. We still have a preference for local markets. Equity strategy: Global equity markets look past their prime and another year of double-digit returns appears unlikely. The fundamental backdrop is deteriorating with earnings under pressure while the room for valuation expansion is limited. We are overweight US and EM, underweight Europe. On a sector basis we maintain a defensive stance. Trade: Trade policy in the coming year will continue to reflect currents of economic nationalism and protectionism in our view. But technological innovation and new trade deals also offer opportunities. High performance firms can benefit from engagement in trade, investment in R&D, and striving for resilience, agility and efficiency. Climate change: After disappointment, disarray and delay, the climate agenda faces challenges of disharmony and distraction. We think investors will look for signs that corporate pledges translate into business strategy and emissions reductions. 9 January