中国-宏观策略-中国经济的不均衡复苏

Disclosures & Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. Issuer of report: The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited View HSBC Global Research at: https://www.research.hsbc.com Voting opens 1st June – 7th AugustIf you value our service and insight, please voteClick here to voteAsiamoney Brokers Poll 2020  Public investment and upstream industrial sectors are set to rebound quickly in the coming quarters  Yet the revival of consumer spending and private investment will likely be slow amid three major headwinds  More policy easing is needed to aid the recovery through increased liquidity and guidance to channel support to the real economy China’s growth recovery should gain momentum in the coming quarters; however, the recovery will likely remain uneven. Growth in infrastructure and other public investment will continue to accelerate, while the revival of private sector investment will remain slow. Meanwhile, the labour market’s slack and the risk of a resurgence in COVID-19 infections will likely limit the pace of recovery in consumer spending. Upstream industrial sectors will likely benefit from stronger construction activity and, as such, pick up quickly, but many downstream and export-oriented industries may continue to face multiple headwinds. Growth in infrastructure investment (including utilities) has rebounded sharply from -16.5% y-o-y in Q1 to 4.6% y-o-y in April and further to 11.6% y-o-y in May. Given the larger and faster special bond issuance by central and local governments, we expect a further acceleration in infrastructure investment growth to above 15% y-o-y in H2. This, plus more resilient-than-expected property markets, will likely continue to support the recovery in heavy machinery and other related upstream industrial sectors. However, the private sector’s fixed asset investment, especially in the manufacturing sector, may remain weak amid still low capacity utilisation rates, the global recession and rising China-US tensions. Despite a recent pick-up in car sales, we expect consumer spending to lag behind in the recovery in the coming quarters. COVID-19 and the lockdowns have had a bigger-than-expected negative shock on the labour market. In the absence of a sizable fiscal rescue package for the affected workers and families, the slack in the labour market will likely have a lasting impact on private consumption. All this calls for more policy easing to engineer a jobs recovery in the rest of the year. We expect central and local governments to speed up their special bond issuance to support infrastructure investment and corporate tax cuts. Monetary policy should stay accommodative and keep liquidity ample so that M2 and TSF growth is ‘significantly higher’ than last year. Specifically, we expect a 30bp lowering of the loan prime rate (LPR), about a 50bp cut of the reserve requireme