全球-交通运输与物流业-第14届交通运输与物流大会：回顾COVID-19大流行

Disclosures & Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. Issuer of report: The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited View HSBC Global Research at: https://www.research.hsbc.com THIS CONTENT MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED TO MAINLAND CHINA  HSBC hosted its 14th Annual Transport & Logistics Conference virtually during 22-26 June  Logistics – a beneficiary; domestic air travel recovery underway, while international travel is last to recover; dry bulk at early stage and container shipping profitability may exceed 2019 level  We highlight 11 Buy ideas with takeaways from the conference HSBC’s 14th Annual Transport & Logistics Conference was held on 22-26 June virtually. The conference included industry experts and 21 corporates, and explored key themes in the global trade outlook and supply chains, dry and wet bulk shipping, container shipping, ports, aviation and ESG through panel discussions (Exhibit 2) and group meetings. We summarise the key messages from the various panels. To view the replays of the panel discussions please first register here and then access them here. Aviation: Our panellists concurred that a recovery is coming first in domestic markets, followed by intra-regional markets (positive for LCCs and domestic-focused airlines), with the recovery being the slowest for long haul (negative for airports). Cargo is the exception and is trading strongly. The panel expects airline failures to begin in 2H20 and continue in 1H21. Lease rates as well as aircraft value will be under pressure. Container shipping: As per our panellists, so far in 2Q20, demand outlook has been better than initially expected, driven by relative strength in East-West and intra-Asia routes, while shipping lines have been proactive in managing capacity. However, they cautioned that the recovery hinges on continued supply discipline going into 2H20. Ports: With lockdowns easing, 2Q20 is likely to be the worst quarter and on a global basis it is less likely that volumes will surpass the 2019 level even in 2021. Transhipment suffered more than origin and destination (O&D) cargo, and within O&D, exports suffered more than imports as factories were shut due to the lockdowns. Dry bulk and tanker shipping: The panellists were of the view that dry bulk shipping appears to be in an early stage of recovery with signs of improving outlook particularly in the context of rising infrastructure spending in China. After a very strong start, the tanker segment may be now at a late cycle as oil demand might have bottomed out in April (peak of lockdowns). 3Q20 will likely mark the end of the restocking cycle and the beginning of the destocking of crude oil inventory leading to floating storage unwinding. Trade policy and supply chain: Speakers from across panels believe the gradual shift in supply chain from China to mainly South East Asia would only f