亚太地区-IT服务业-亚洲科技硬件：服务器行业磕磕绊绊，但长期主题不变

Disclosures & Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. Issuer of report: HSBC Securities (Taiwan) Corporation Limited View HSBC Global Research at: https://www.research.hsbc.com Voting opens 1st June – 7th AugustIf you value our service and insight, please voteClick here to voteAsiamoney Brokers Poll 2020  We don’t see the short-term slowdown in server growth in 2H20 capping the long-term growth of the sector  Datacentre & server plays deserve a further re-rating on brighter long-term outlook from 2021e  We initiate coverage on Wiwynn at Buy, upgrade Quanta to Buy (from Hold), and reiterate our Buy on Aspeed A milder server outlook in 2H20: After the strong rally in 1H20, we expect global server shipments to trend milder QoQ in 3Q-4Q20 given the high base of cloud services providers’ (CSPs) server pull-in 1H20 and the demand weakness in enterprise servers. Overall, we forecast 3Q20 global server shipments to be flat QoQ and up 2% YoY, followed by -5% QoQ/-9% YoY in 4Q20 due to the transition period of Intel’s CPU refresh in late 2020. Overall, we forecast global server shipments to see a 4% YoY decline in 2H20 vs. 12% growth in 1H20. More moderate CSPs’ capex in 2020 vs. 2018, implying limited downside risk: Despite the short-term growth deceleration, we think the slowdown won’t be as significant as in 2H18-1H19, due to CSPs’ more moderate capex plans of 3%/18% YoY in 2019/20e vs. aggressive capex growth of 32%/64% YoY in 2017/18. We conduct a server sensitivity analysis, with our bear case indicating only +2% YoY for 2021e server shipments vs. +9% for our base case. Our sensitivity analysis suggests potential downside of 1-12%/0%-14% to our 2020/21e EPS vs. consensus, translating into limited share price downside of 4-16% for our coverage under a bear-case scenario. Long-term growth intact: Looking forward, we expect more catalysts to underpin 20%+ YoY growth for white-box server shipments in 2021-22e, including: 1) Intel Ice Lake CPU refresh cycle; 2) cloud services expansion driven by user behaviour digital transformation post-COVID-19; 3) global CSPs’ deferred cloud infrastructure investment into 2021; and 4) additional fuel from 5G/edge computing servers. Still expecting re-rating, and eyeing datacentre plays: Although the datacentre sector has risen 20% YTD, we believe it deserves a further re-rating based on our view of resilient double-digit growth in 2021e. Given further likely downside risk to enterprise servers, we suggest eyeing purer datacentre names. We initiate coverage on Wiwynn (6669 TT) at Buy, with 100% exposure to CSPs. Also, we like Aspeed (5274 TT) for its additional growth from China datacentres. Lastly, we upgrade Quanta (2382 TT) on its leading position in the server industry and better-than-feared NB outlook in 2020. 29 June 2020 Carol Juan* Analyst, Technology HSBC Securities (Taiwan)