英文【美国银行】亚洲基金经理调查：萌芽乐观

Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and are not suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financial resources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies. >> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analystunder the FINRA rules.Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that takeresponsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its researchreports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 11 to 13. 12886666 Asia Fund Manager SurveyBudding optimism Recovery mode. The global growth forecast continues to gain momentum in October. APAC ex-Japan economy prospects reached an 11-month high, with over half of the survey respondents anticipating a stronger Japanese economy in the next 12 months. Despite enhanced growth expectations, inflation forecasts for the region remain low, providing a favorable environment for risk assets as the Fed persists with its easing cycle. Unfazed. Survey participants are unfazed by quasi-straight-line markets since April lows. Nine in 10 investors anticipate APAC ex-Japan equities to rise in the next 12 months, with return expectations rising to the highest level since Feb’23 as investors see recovery in corporate profits and see scope for upgrades in consensus earnings estimates. Valuation perceptions though above LT average are well below year-highs. From value trap to valuable. The FMS stays overwhelmingly positive on Japan, with 7 in 8 panelists expecting positive returns in the next 12 months, with no one calling for a double digit pullback. Investors see corporate governance reforms, policy normalization, and earnings as key themes determining the direction of market in the near-to-medium term. Recent political developments may muddle the next hike timeline, though 80% expect it to happen before March. Semis and banks remain investors’ favorites. Confidence boost. China’s growth outlook continues to improve, currently at a seven-month high, with net 8% expecting a stronger economy (from 59% expecting weaker economy in April), amid expectations that Beijing would take further steps to end persistent deflation and arrest recent slowdown in the economy. Investor sentiment is buoyant with our China Risk-Love indicator (see 29 Sep report) climbing to the 92nd percentile (highest since April 2021) of its history. Investors think households will shift a part of the savings to assets and discretionary spending. Even the structural bears retreated in the latest update. Don’t change a winning com