世界银行-公共和私人交通：来自拉各斯的证据（英）

Policy Research Working Paper11229Public and Private TransitEvidence from LagosDaniel BjörkegrenAlice DuhautGeetika NagpalNick TsivanidisDevelopment Economic Policy &Development Impact GroupOctober 2025 A verified reproducibility package for this paper is available at http://reproducibility.worldbank.org, click here for direct access. Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedProduced by the Research Support TeamAbstractThe Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.Policy Research Working Paper 11229Private minibuses dominate transport in many developing country cities. They serve 62% of motorized trips in Lagos, the largest city in sub-Saharan Africa. This paper uses orig-inal panel data to measure how private minibuses respond to the rollout of a new public bus network. When the gov-ernment enters a route, minibuses depart less frequently, drivers’ profits fall, and drivers switch to connected routes, reducing prices. A custom application was developed to estimate how commuters trade off prices and wait times using a RCT. The private response harms commuters on treated routes, who wait longer, but benefits those on con-nected routes, who face only lower prices. The disciplining effect of the new system on prices dominates on average, so that commuters overall benefit from the introduction of public transit, while minibus drivers lose revenue. Over one quarter of the commute welfare gains of building the public transit system arise from the response of private transit. Drivers lose welfare equal to 60% of the commuter gains.This paper is a product of the Development Economic Policy and the Development Impact Group, Development Economics. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted at aduhaut@worldbank.org. A verified reproducibility package for this paper is available at http://reproducibility.worldbank.org, click here for direct access. POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPERSTRANSPARENTANALYSISPublic and Private Transit: Evidence from LagosDaniel Björkegren, Alice Duhaut, Geetika Nagpal, Nick Tsivanidis Keywo