量化人工智能的经济潜力-辅助和自主发展情景之间的增长差异（英）

TOBIAS SYTSMAQuantifying AI’s Economic PotentialGrowth Differentials Between Assistive and Autonomous Development ScenariosResearch ReportFor more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RRA4220-1.About RANDRAND is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. To learn more about RAND, visit www.rand.org.Research IntegrityOur mission to help improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis is enabled through our core values of quality and objectivity and our unwavering commitment to the highest level of integrity and ethical behavior. To help ensure our research and analysis are rigorous, objective, and nonpartisan, we subject our research publications to a robust and exacting quality-assurance process; avoid both the appearance and reality of financial and other conflicts of interest through staff training, project screening, and a policy of mandatory disclosure; and pursue transparency in our research engagements through our commitment to the open publication of our research findings and recommendations, disclosure of the source of funding of published research, and policies to ensure intellectual independence. For more information, visit www.rand.org/about/research-integrity.RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif.© 2025 RAND Corporation is a registered trademark.Limited Print and Electronic Distribution RightsThis publication and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited; linking directly to its webpage on rand.org is encouraged. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research products for commercial purposes. For information on reprint and reuse permissions, visit www.rand.org/about/publishing/permissions.RR-A4220-1 iii About This Report The analysis in this report models the economic implications of two contrasting boundary scenarios for artificial intelligence (AI) development: restricting AI to purely assistive tools that augment human productivity versus enabling agents that can autonomously perform tasks at least as well as humans and replicate themselves. The Agent World scenario represents the potential emergence of artificial general intelligence (AGI) capabilities, whereas the Tool World scenario represents AI progress as a variety of narrow, specialized systems that enhance human productivity but do not achieve general intelligence. These stylized scenarios are not meant to be interpreted as predictions; rather, they are meant to establish a variety of potential economic outcomes for policymake